Winthrop, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

988
FXUS61 KBTV 291132
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
732 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Fair weather will continue under high pressure. A cooler period
will begin tomorrow behind another dry cold front, leading to
seasonable temperatures and chances for frost midweek.
Temperatures will return to above normal by next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Monday...Satellite imagery tells the story of
quiet weather for the period, as skies are largely clear across
a vast area of the Northeast and southern Canada, extending
westward into the Midwest. In central Canada there is evidence
of a moisture-starved cold front, which will be steered
southward through tonight. On its western flank we`ll see a wind
shift overnight and the anticipated cooler air mass filter in
tomorrow. The winds associated with the front and further drying
will reduce potential for valley fog, but the favored areas
could still see fog development towards daybreak.
Ahead of the front today there will be modest westerly flow and
pressure falls along with seasonably warm air, as temperatures
soar back into the 70s by afternoon. Humidity will remain low,
especially east of the high peaks of the Adirondacks and higher
terrain in central and eastern Vermont, dropping as low as the
25 to 35% range this afternoon. Tomorrow, cooler conditions with
highs averaging 7 to 12 degrees lower than today will lead to
humidity likely not dropping as low as today. However, wind
speeds will be somewhat elevated with sustained winds commonly
in the 10-15 MPH range. Forecast soundings show unidirectional
north-northwesterly flow in the boundary layer supporting
frequent 20-25 MPH gusts, especially in the eastern Champlain
Valley and during the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Monday...This period will feature sweater
weather with a return to seasonably cool conditions. Low
temperature Wednesday morning will likely be in the 30s in most
locations and development of patchy frost primarily in the
Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont is expected; widespread
frost is unlikely due to continued northerly winds, even though
surface winds will tend to diminish overnight. During the
daytime, breezes will resume in the 10 to 15 MPH range, and
probably a bit stronger than on Tuesday at times with greater
coverage of 20 to 25 MPH wind gusts. High temperatures will be
about 5 degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s to low
60s for most spots. Skies will remain clear, with perhaps some
sparse and thin fair weather clouds in the vicinity of higher
terrain during the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Monday...The coolest air of the period will be
in place Wednesday night, leading to a high probability of frost
and freeze conditions Thursday morning. Temperatures at or below
32 degrees will be common in the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom where our defined growing season will have ended, but
other areas in central Vermont, such as Morrisville and
Montpelier, have a 60-85% chance of sub-freezing temperatures
with ideal radiational cooling and dry air. Otherwise, no
hazardous conditions are anticipated through the period as
temperatures trend warmer. Interestingly, the interquartile
range of possible high and low temperatures next weekend
actually is smaller than earlier in the period, owing to high
model agreement of deep layer ridging moving into the region.
Warm and dry weather will become established for next weekend
in response, which will worsen drought conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Aside from any short-lived LIFR as patchy
fog dissipates at SLK, VFR conditions will prevail. Clear skies
through 17Z, then scattered 25,000 foot ceilings will stream
northward after 18Z with opacity greatest at RUT where BKN250 is
probable. Probabilities of fog again tonight are too low to
indicate with a dry cold front moving through the airspace from
north to south between about 05Z and 09Z, but have hinted the
possibility with SLK using SCT001 as this site has seen more fog
than expected each of the last two nights. Winds will be SW/W
5-10 kt, decreasing after 22Z and turning northerly, or
northeasterly at MSS, after 06Z at most terminals with speeds
remaining mainly 4 to 8 knots.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Areas frost.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion