Winona, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

199
FXUS63 KGLD 200511
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1111 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread fog likely overnight and into Saturday morning.
- Above average temperatures will return over the weekend, with
  highs in the mid 80`s on Sat-Sun.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Today-Tonight: A broad, complex upper level low over the
Dakotas will slowly/gradually track eastward into the Upper
Midwest this afternoon into tonight. Robust shortwave energy
(and focused upper forcing) over east-central Nebraska at 19 UTC
will progress E-ESE to the Nebraska-Iowa border (away from the
Goodland CWA) this afternoon. Guidance suggests that low- level
convergence within, and strengthening southerly flow on the
eastern periphery of, a broad lee cyclone/trough over western KS
will foster isolated convective development along/east of Hwy
83 in northwest KS late this afternoon and early this evening.
Confounding factors include whether or not (or to what extent)
ongoing convection accompanying the aforementioned shortwave
energy in central Nebraska will alter/influence environmental
conditions over northwest KS late this afternoon. Output from
current and recent (06-18Z) runs of the HRRR and (06-12Z) NAM
NEST remain less enthusiastic (compared to prior runs) about
convective development and intensity in northwest KS this
afternoon. Radar/satellite trends the past hour (19-20 UTC)
clearly indicate that scattered convective development has
commenced along the Hwy 36 corridor near the KS-NE border. Given
that convective development is already underway.. in the
presence of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and ~50 KT effective deep
layer shear.. a supercell capable of producing large hail is
certainly possible *if* updraft organization can be acquired/
sustained. In light of current trends, the `window of
opportunity` for severe weather may be an hour or two earlier
than previously indicated.. ~2-7 pm MDT / 3-8 pm CDT.
Sat-Sun: Guidance suggests that a complex, disjointed synoptic
pattern characterized by (1) a sinuous, speedy northern stream
jet at higher latitudes in Canada and (2) a speedy, increasingly
sinuous southern stream jet along the southern Pacific Coast,
Desert Southwest and 4-Corners.. will prevail over North America
this weekend. While the Tri-State area will be in closest
proximity to (and more likely to be influenced by) the southern
stream jet.. a fractured branch of the northern stream jet
(manifesting as slow moving/nearly-stalled waves over the
Northern Plains) will no doubt introduce additional complexity/
uncertainty to the evolution of the upper level pattern (and
sensible weather conditions) over the Central Plains. Expect
increasing upper level cloud cover.. orographic cirrus, in
particular.. which may temper highs over much of the area
(especially eastern CO). Considerable uncertainty persists with
regard to precipitation chances/coverage.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Long range guidance continues to suggest that a closed low will
develop over the central-northern Rockies/High Plains early
next week. If this is the case, one would expect active/
dynamic weather. Below average confidence in forecast specifics.
Forecast confidence typically decreases with range. Below
average, in this context, is intended to communicate a further
reduction in confidence associated with /inherent-to/ increased
pattern complexity, e.g. patterns characterized by cut-off waves
and multi-branched jet/wave interactions, among other factors.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
WIDESPREAD fog likely overnight and into Saturday morning with
IFR to VLIFR conditions expected to develop at both KGLD and
KMCK. The fog and ceilings will gradually lift through mid to
late Saturday morning with VFR prevailing at both terminals by
early afternoon.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...024

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion