Wilbur, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

478
FXUS66 KOTX 170746
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1246 AM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry through the end of the week.
- Weekend cold front to deliver breezy conditions and a chance
  of mainly mountain showers
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will bring warm and dry
conditions through the work week. Unsettled weather returns this
weekend with breezy winds and a chance of mainly mountain
showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: There is good model agreement that a strong
upper ridge centered over Eastern Washington and North Idaho this
morning will slowly weaken and move east allowing a weak, dry,
short wave trough to pass through Thursday into Friday. Southwest
flow ahead of this trough will bring additional warming today with
high temperatures in the 80s. There is still some residual
boundary layer moisture over NE WA/N Idaho Panhandle for shallow
patchy fog through 8-9 AM this morning. Then as the weak trough
passes Thursday into Friday, the main impact will be locally
breezy winds near the Cascades which may help to increase fire
activity for fires burning along the East Slopes of the
Cascades.
Saturday through Tuesday: There is good model agreement of an
upper trough swinging into British Columbia and the Inland NW
sending a cold front across the region over the weekend. Swift
mid level westerly flow is expected to result in a significant
rain shadow east of the Cascades, with rain confined to mainly the
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. This trough will also result
in breezy west winds. Heading into Monday and Tuesday, 70% of the
ensembles dig a trough off the coast resulting in a building ridge
over the area along with warmer and drier conditions. The other
30% are weaker with the ridge, with the next weather system
approaching for a chance of showers. Currently the forecast leans
towards the majority with a warmer/drier scenario. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure over the region will deliver clear skies
and light terrain driven winds through Wednesday. A moist
boundary layer over NE Washington and the ID Panhandle with dew
points in the upper 40s to mid 50s has the potential to bring
patchy fog between 9z-15z for the mountain valleys. However it
will be shallower and less in coverage compared to what happened
Tuesday morning and is not expected to impact any of the TAF
sites.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions for TAF sites through 06z Thursday. JW
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        86  54  85  55  84  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  86  56  86  56  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        83  51  83  52  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       88  59  88  61  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       86  44  86  45  84  43 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Sandpoint      83  49  84  51  81  47 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        84  58  85  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     86  52  85  53  85  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      86  59  84  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           87  56  85  56  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion