Wharton, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

404
FXUS61 KRLX 261915
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
315 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure crosses north of the region today. An upper
level disturbance approaches from the southwest tonight, bringing
a better chance for showers late tonight and Saturday south/east.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...
Low stratus has broken up across the area this afternoon into
SCT stratocu, resulting in a decent amount of sunshine. Mainly
dry weather persist today as high pressure traverses north of
the region, with just a few isolated (20%) showers possible
across southwest VA northeast across the mountains. Highs will
range from the mid 70s to 80 across the lowlands, with mid 60s
to low 70s in the mountains.
An upper level disturbance currently located across southern TN
pivots northeast towards the area overnight, bringing an
increased chance for showers and perhaps a few ISOLD
thunderstorms, primarily south and east of line from Charleston
to Clarksburg, later tonight through Saturday. This results in
increasing cloud cover overnight, with the potential for some
fog, particularly across the northwestern CWA given less cloud
cover. Rainfall through Saturday should generally be 0.50-0.75"
or less and be of the beneficial variety, although a highly
isolated hydro issue in/near the mountains cannot entirely be
ruled out. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s
to low 60s. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 70s to low 80s
across the lowlands, with 60s in the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...
Mainly dry conditions will return to the area for the end of the
weekend and start of the new work week as the aforementioned
upper disturbance shifts northeast and mid level ridging
attempts to build across the region. Isolated showers will
remain possible Saturday night into Sunday in/near the higher
terrain, and then once again across the higher terrain late
Monday into Monday night given the potential for tropical
moisture moving in from the south. Otherwise, dry conditions
are progged further northwest amid a decent amount of sunshine
both days. High temperatures Sunday/Monday look to be slightly
above normal across the lowlands, with mid 70s to low 80s
progged. Seasonable temperatures are expected further south/east
given increased cloud cover. Overnight lows will run ~ 5
degrees above normal, with at least patchy or worse fog possible
each morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...
A strengthening tropical system is currently progged to approach
the southeast CONUS Monday evening into Tuesday night, with
guidance then differing on if, or how far the system moves
inland. This feature will be the main weather-maker for the
extended period across our forecast area, thus resulting in two
possible solutions, with the first being it remains offshore or
far enough south/east that our area remains dry under high
pressure. On the contrary, if it moves far enough inland as
depicted by the GFS, the chance for at least SCT showers returns
later Tuesday and Wednesday, with at least the potential for
some heavy rain depending on track. The NBM PoPs of 20-40% on
Tuesday/Wednesday reflect the significant amount of uncertainty
in guidance this far out, but at least highlight the potential.
Following this, dry weather returns on Thursday as high pressure
builds more firmly into the region. Temperatures throughout the
period will be near to slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...
Stratus has broken up for the most part across the CWA,
resulting in a mixture of VFR/MVFR CIGs at present, with a
gradual return to widespread VFR expected throughout the
afternoon. A few ISOLD showers are possible across southwest VA
northeast through the mountains this afternoon/evening.
Widespread restrictions will gradually return overnight courtesy
of some patchy fog, lowering CIGs, and scattered rain showers
(primarily south/east), with MVFR or worse expected across much
of the area by late tonight. Scattered to numerous showers will
remain possible on Saturday south and east, with MVFR/IFR
persisting through the end of the TAF period there. VFR returns
further northwest.
Light and variable flow is expected through the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High today, medium thereafter.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions later
tonight and Saturday morning with fog, rain, and stratus may
vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR is possible at night with low stratus and/or fog through
Monday morning.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...GW

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion