West Park California Weather Forecast Discussion

403
FXUS66 KHNX 101527
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
825 AM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.UPDATE...
This is a correction of the AFD.
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&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Cooling Trend continues through weekend into next week.
Tuesday is coolest day of the week.
2. Tropical moisture from the south will result in a 5 to 10
percent probability for thunderstorms in the Kern Desert Friday.
3. Maximum wind gusts along the crests of the Sierra have a 40
to 80 percent probability to exceed 40 mph Friday.
4. Potential for a deeper system to develop into next week, with
widespread 25 to 65 percent probabilities for half an inch or
more of precipitation in the Valley Tuesday and Wednesday.
5. 50 to 80 percent chance of a foot or more of snow above 6,500
feet in 72 hours between 5 pm Monday and 5 pm Thursday.
6. There is a Marginal (5 to 15 percent) Risk of Excessive
Rainfall along the Sierra Nevada foothills and in the Valley
from Fresno County northward on Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
We currently have a trough spinning off the coast of Oregon and
California. This trough is helping draw moisture from the
remnants of Priscilla into the Desert areas. However, most of
it is remaining east of Kern County but there is still a 5 to 10
percent chance of thunderstorms today for the Kern Desert. As
the trough makes its way inland today into tomorrow it will
bring cooler air into the area helping bring us down.
However, the big story is once this first trough moves off is
a much larger trough which will retrograde and slide down the
Pacific Coast early next week. This second trough brings much
colder air that snow levels will drop to 6,500 to 7,000 feet.
This trough also will help bring a 60 to 70 percent chance of a
water vapor transport of at least 150 kg/(m*s) into the area.
Latest model ensembles show a 50 to 80 percent chance of a foot
of snow between Monday evening and Thursday afternoon above
6,500 feet due to the high moisture amounts. Down in the Valley,
we are looking at a 25 to 65 percent chance of half an inch or
more both on Tuesday and Wednesday. Portions of the Valley and
West Side Hills are under a Marginal (5 to 15 percent) Risk of
Excessive Rainfall on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
JPK/McCoy
weather.gov/hanford

NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion