Weed New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

503
FXUS64 KEPZ 092338
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
538 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 535 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
- Drier and somewhat breezy conditions through Friday.
- Remnant tropical moisture will flow over the area Saturday
   through Monday, bringing rain and storm chances. Heavy rain
   threat will be favored in southern and western areas with
   flooding possible.
- Temperatures will be near or above normal through Saturday,
   then cooling early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Models continue to have agreement of a trough/ridge/trough pattern
for much of the U.S. through the forecast period. The ridge will
remain just off to our east with a couple of troughs/upper lows
moving into the Pacific Coast. There are 2 tropical systems
Priscilla and possibly Raymond which will get picked up in this
pattern and brought up into the region bringing the threat for
heavy rain.
The period will start out fairly quiet with just a few showers
mainly over the mountains before the tropical moisture moves in.
Temperatures will continue warming up above normal through Friday
with highs in the 80s for the lowlands with occasional breezy
east-southeast winds.
As we go into the weekend, the remnants of Priscilla will get
drawn north into AZ and it looks like most of this moisture will
be north of us, there will still be some moving into the west by
Sat afternoon as trough to the west moves into the Great Basin.
There will not be much instability any day, but any convection
that can develop will be very efficient rain producers with PW`s
approaching 1.5" at times which is very high for early/mid Oct.
Precip will spread east Sat night then with SSW to SW flow
persisting rain chances will continue into early next week. The
moisture from what could develop into Raymond moves in for
Sun/Mon. There has been a downtrend in the operational GFS for
total QPF amounts, but the ensemble mean is up slightly for Sat-
Tue. At this point it`s hard to pinpoint a period of greatest
flooding threat, but it`s more likely going to be Sun/Mon as soils
saturate. NBM PoPs generally high chance to low likely and didn`t
make many changes. The way the pattern seems to be developing, the
further south you go, the higher the rainfall amounts will likely
be. Overall would expect 1-1.5" being the average with some areas,
especially over far SW NM where 2-3" are possible.
Temperatures will be cooling down nicely with plenty of cloud
cover and precipitation. Most areas by Sunday will have a tough
time getting out of the 70s with some 60s possible in the areas
with the highest rainfall amounts.
There could continue to be some rain chances continuing even into
the middle of next week, but this will depend on if the upper flow
stays more SW like the EC which taps into drier air or the GFS
which is more southerly and continues to tap some subtropical
moisture. Kept some 20 PoPs going into the middle of the week with
this chance.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Gustiness
settles down to start the period with E-SE winds AOB 10kts through
the AM. Some gustiness returns tomorrow afternoon to the upper
teens. FEW-SCT070 linger into the overnight with dry conditions
persisting for Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Low level moisture will remain in place through the period with
min RH`s in the 30s early on but by Sunday into Tuesday will be up
into the 40s to 60s. Generally dry through Friday, but precip will
start moving in early Saturday from the west and spread east by
early Sunday. Chances for rainfall will continue through at least
Tuesday with some locally heavy rainfall amounts possible leading
to flooding. The rain looks more stratiform with isolated embedded
thunderstorms, so it will be more of a moderate, prolonged rain
event.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  86  68  88  67 /  10  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            81  57  84  60 /  20  10  10   0
Las Cruces               82  63  83  62 /  10  10  10   0
Alamogordo               82  62  84  61 /  10  10  10   0
Cloudcroft               60  45  63  46 /  10  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences    79  62  81  60 /  10  10  10  10
Silver City              76  57  76  56 /  20  10  10  20
Deming                   84  65  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
Lordsburg                84  65  83  61 /  10   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro       84  68  87  66 /  10  10   0   0
Dell City                84  60  87  62 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             88  65  91  67 /  20  10   0   0
Loma Linda               77  60  81  60 /  20  10   0   0
Fabens                   86  65  90  66 /  20  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             83  65  86  64 /   0  10   0   0
White Sands HQ           82  65  85  64 /  10  10  10   0
Jornada Range            81  63  83  61 /  10  10  10   0
Hatch                    84  64  86  63 /  10  10  10   0
Columbus                 86  66  86  64 /  10  10  10  10
Orogrande                81  61  83  61 /   0  10   0   0
Mayhill                  70  49  74  53 /  10  10  10   0
Mescalero                71  50  75  51 /  10  10  10   0
Timberon                 68  47  71  49 /  10  10  10   0
Winston                  71  52  75  51 /  20  10  10  10
Hillsboro                78  59  82  58 /  20  10  10  10
Spaceport                80  60  83  59 /  10  10  10   0
Lake Roberts             76  54  77  52 /  30  10  10  20
Hurley                   78  58  79  57 /  20  10  10  10
Cliff                    84  62  83  59 /  20  10  10  20
Mule Creek               80  58  78  56 /  20  10  10  20
Faywood                  77  60  78  58 /  20  10  10  10
Animas                   85  64  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
Hachita                  83  63  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
Antelope Wells           85  62  84  61 /  10  10  10  10
Cloverdale               81  61  79  59 /  10  10  10  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion