Watauga Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

376
FXUS64 KFWD 082302
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
602 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated rain showers are possible today with coverage of 10%
  or less.
- Warm and mostly dry weather will continue into next week with
  temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 153 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025/
/Today through Thursday Afternoon/
There is not much change from the previous forecast as upper-
level ridging continues to dominate the weather across North and
Central Texas today and tomorrow. The stalled frontal boundary is
currently draped across from SW-NE across the western half of the
CWA and will linger in this area the rest of this afternoon.
Afternoon highs will be able to reach into the 80s and 90s,
remaining 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals. By late afternoon,
there may be some diurnally-driven showers near and south of this
boundary where better moisture is located and surface wind fields
have better convergence signals. The upper level ridging will
keep coverage very limited, and have kept 10% PoPs east of I-35
for this afternoon. Any shower will wane with the loss of daytime
heating, with a tranquil night in store.
Tomorrow, will be another warm day. A shortwave disturbance will
transit around the ridge to our east, sending its attendant front
south and west towards East Texas. Unfortunately, this backdoor
front will not be the "fall cold front" most of us are wanting.
The front should begin to edge into our East Texas counties over
the afternoon, allowing a couple degrees to be shaved off of high
temperatures. Highs will range from the low-mid 80s in the
northeast to the mid 80s-low 90s elsewhere.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 153 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025/
/Thursday Evening Onward/
The front will continue to push further into the region on
Friday, resulting in a similar afternoon temperature gradient to
Thursday before becoming more diffuse by the weekend. With the
continued lack of rain and drier air behind the front, initial
fire activity may increase for areas west of I-35, so make sure
to take caution! Early next week, a shortwave disturbance will
round the apex of the ridge, but any rain from this will likely
stay to our north and west. Otherwise, through the rest of the
period upper-level ridging will continue to dominate our day-to-
day weather, with warm temperatures and rain-free conditions
persisting.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
NE winds (030-070) will become more ENE/E (070-090) by 06Z
tonight. While winds across the metroplex may occasionally switch
to be slightly south of east (090-100), prevailing flow should
have a northerly component. NE/ENE winds will be more persistent
at KACT. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
TAF sites for the duration of this forecast period.
Darrah
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  87  63  86  63 /   5   5   0   0   0
Waco                67  89  61  87  59 /   5   5   0   0   0
Paris               62  83  56  83  58 /   5   5   0   0   0
Denton              62  86  57  85  58 /   5   5   0   0   0
McKinney            63  86  57  85  59 /   5   5   0   0   0
Dallas              67  88  63  87  64 /   5   5   0   0   0
Terrell             63  86  56  85  58 /   5   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           67  88  60  87  60 /   5   5   0   0   0
Temple              65  89  60  88  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       64  89  59  89  58 /   5   5   0   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion