Walnut Grove, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

825
FXUS64 KBMX 010054
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
754 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
- No hazardous weather impacts are anticipated the next seven
   days. However, drought conditions are most likely going to
   increase across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 754 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
A few showers are still holding on out there across far eastern
and northeastern counties associated with a mid-level vort max
that is moving southward over the region. This vort max is
rotating around the western periphery of a weak mid-level low
pressure over North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic region.
Meanwhile, Imelda in the SW Atlantic will continue to move out to
sea. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast overnight as mid-
level and high cirrus clouds stream overhead. Temperatures are
currently on track to drop down into the low and middle 60s. A few
locations along the major river/lake basins and valleys across the
northeast counties may see patchy fog develop in the hours just
before daybreak, but no widespread fog is anticipated.
As the 500mb ridge builds across the Ohio Valley to our north, an
easterly to northeasterly flow will continue across Alabama and
Georgia during the day on Wednesday. A backdoor "wedge" front
will then progress across Central Alabama from east to west
Wednesday afternoon, transporting drier dewpoints in the 50s into
the CWA. As the front continues westward, guidance is hinting at
a low chance for a few isolated showers to develop across western
Alabama or eastern Mississippi during peak heating hours. Some
very low PoPs may need to be introduced for those areas overnight,
but will opt to leave those out for now on this update. High temps
in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees are still on track, but with
lower overall humidity as the wedge front moves through.
56/GDG
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week.
Unfortunately these prolonged dry conditions will likely lead to the
expansion of drought across Central Alabama. With that said, rain
chances do return by Sunday as a weak low moves inland across the
north Gulf coast. A healthy plume of moisture looks to accompany
this feature which will hopefully help alleviate some of our
ongoing drought conditions.
Temperatures throughout the long term remain fairly steady with
highs in the mid 80s and lows generally in the 60s. The exception
will be Friday morning as looks dip into the mid 50s as PWAts
briefly fall to near 0.6-0.7".
95/Castillo
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 754 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the forecast
period. Ceilings through the short-term will remain between 5k and
10k feet, with a high cirrus deck persisting overnight. Winds will
mostly diminish from around 5 knots from the northeast to light
and variable overnight. Easterly winds will pick back up during
the day on Wednesday around 10 knots.
56/GDG
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The area should remain mostly dry, with minRH values will fall
into the low to mid-30s by Wednesday. MinRHs in the mid 30 to low
40s are expected daily through the remainder of the work week.
Given the sharp east shift in the tropical trends, no real
moisture return is expected until next weekend, with only isolated
rain chances the next seven days or so. Because of this, drought
conditions will remain ongoing, with additional expansion possible
given the lack of rain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  87  59  83 /  20   0   0   0
Anniston    63  86  61  81 /  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  66  88  64  85 /  10  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  68  90  64  88 /   0  10   0   0
Calera      65  89  62  85 /  10  10   0   0
Auburn      64  86  62  80 /  20   0   0   0
Montgomery  66  88  63  84 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        64  85  62  82 /  10   0   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...56/GDG

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion