Wailea, Hawaii Weather Forecast Discussion

459
FXHW60 PHFO 291356
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
356 AM HST Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Typical weather setup with moderate to locally breezy trade winds.
This will keep the most showers windward and mauka into Tuesday.
Afternoon showers will develop over leeward slopes of the Big
Island, but most other leeward areas will be dry. Showers may
increase slightly Wednesday in most areas. Trades will decrease
slightly midweek and may further decline Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Fairly stable, moderate to locally breezy trade winds are forecast
to continue through at least Tuesday. The trades are being driven
by robust surface high pressure centered roughly 1,000 miles
north of Kauai. Stable conditions cover the islands as an upper-
level ridge building in from the east has pushed the inversion
down to between 6,000 to 7,000 ft. The locally breezy trade wind
flow produced modest rainfall over windward slopes Sunday, with
just a few hundredths of an inch recorded at most gages. Early
this morning, isolated showers were seen on radar mainly moving
into windward Oahu and Kauai.
Little change is expected through late Thursday in the basic trade
wind pattern. Increased moisture is expected to provide an
uptick in shower activity, mainly windward, Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The surface high to the north will be split in two by a
trough beginning late Wednesday, with a low centered north of
Kauai by Thursday afternoon. The influence of this low and the
displacement of the high to the east will shift the trades to
southeast Friday into Saturday. Trades return Sunday with vigor.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue to favor limited
clouds and showers, mainly over windward and mauka areas.
Localized MVFR possible within passing showers, but most sites
will remain VFR.
AIRMET Sierra in effect for mountain obscuration due to low
clouds and showers over Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, Maui, and
the Big Island. Conditions expected to improve later this morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds will continue to
build into the area through Monday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
for windier waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island
remains in effect through this afternoon.
A small medium period north swell will build into the Hawaii
Region today. A series of small medium period swells from the
north and northwest will trickle in through the middle of the
week. A moderate long period northwest (330 deg) swell will
overlap with a smaller medium period north swell starting Friday
night building surf heights along north and west facing shores
this weekend.
Surf along south facing shores will slowly fade today from a
small medium period south swell. A series of small medium period
south swells will keep surf along south facing shores from going
flat through the week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain on the small side in
moderate trade wind flow.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Locally breezy trade winds and rather dry conditions will persist
into Tuesday, but conditions should remain just below critical
fire weather thresholds. A brief period of wetter trade wind
weather is expected on Wednesday. A strengthening inversion will
build down to 5,000 to 6,000 feet on Monday.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Parker/Walsh
AVIATION...Parker/Walsh
MARINE...Bohlin
FIRE WEATHER...Parker/Walsh

NWS HFO Office Area Forecast Discussion