Vineland, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

484
FXUS65 KPUB 022045
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
245 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy to windy conditions Friday and Saturday as an upper level
weather system translates across the Rockies.
- Well above seasonal temperatures on Friday with increasing
coverage of showers and storms Friday night and Saturday over the
higher terrain.
- Cooler and unsettled weather pattern for the late weekend into
  the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Rest of Today and Tonight...
With the upper-level trough continuing to build to our west, warm
and mild conditions will persist the rest of today and through
tonight. Temperatures will be above normal, with overnight lows in
the 40s-50s over most of the area. Even the high valleys should only
sink into the mid-upper 30s, greatly diminishing the chance for any
frost tonight, though a few hours of patchy frost may still occur in
some places.
Friday...
Breezy southwest winds move in aloft tomorrow, just ahead of the
deepening trough out west. Dry and warm conditions will persist
across the region, with temperatures expected to be several degrees
above normal. Highs will be in the 80s to low-90s over the eastern
plains, and in the 70s for the valleys, with several areas hitting
just a few degrees below records. Record high temperatures for
Friday October 3rd are 79F at ALS in 2024, 87F at COS in 1935, and
94F at PUB in 2018. Given the dry conditions, a few hours of
elevated fire weather risk will occur in the afternoon, mainly
located over the southeast plains. At this time, areas of lowest RH
and strongest winds do not overlap for more than an hour or two,
with stronger gusts near the KS border and drier air over I-25, so
no highlights are needed as of now.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Latest model data supports increasing southwest flow aloft across
the Rockies on Friday, as a broad upper trough across the West Coast
digs into the Great Basin. Increasing southwest flow allows for breezy
conditions over and near the higher terrain on Friday, with induced
lee  troughing bringing breezy southerly winds across the plains.
The breezy and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire danger across
the area on Friday, though areas with the strongest winds and driest
conditions will not be juxtaposed, limiting the development of critical
fire weather conditions. Temperatures are expected to be well above
seasonal levels as well, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s expected
across the plains, and in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.
Record high temperatures for Friday October 3rd are 79F at ALS in 2024,
87F at COS in 1935, and 94F at PUB in 2018.
Friday night-Saturday night...The broad Pacific trough across the Great
Basin remains progged to lift out across the Rockies on Saturday, with
increasing moisture and uvv within the southwest flow bringing increasing
coverage of showers and a few possible embedded thunderstorms to the higher
terrain along and west of the ContDvd Friday night and Saturday. Chances
of precipitation spread east through the day Saturday, as the system`s front
translates across across south central and southeast Colorado Saturday
afternoon. Breezy to windy southerly winds across the region early Saturday
become more westerly and remain gusty behind the passing system. This will
keep overnight lows mild Friday night and allow for temperatures to warm
quickly on Saturday into the 70s and 80s across the plains, with mainly 50s
and 60s across the higher terrain, save for 30s and 40s across the peaks.
The best chances of accumulating precipitation remains along the ContDvd
with snow levels remaining relatively high Friday night before falling
through the day Saturday. This will bring some light snow accumulations
across the higher peaks on Saturday. Cooler and much drier air filters into
the region behind the passing system Saturday night, leading to the potential
for aub-freezing temperatures across the higher terrain into early Sunday
morning. We will continue to monitor for the possible issuance of a Freeze
Warning for portions of the San Luis Valley into early Sunday morning.
Sunday-Thursday...Latest model data continues to differ on the timing and
location of secondary energy digging back across the Great Basin, as well
as the amount of available moisture across the region into the beginning of
next week. There is also the potential for subtropical moisture to move into
the Rockies for the middle to end of next week. Latest model data continues
to indicate a cooler airmass, associated with surface high pressure building
south across the High Plains, pushing into eastern Colorado on Sunday, with
this cooler airmass ebbing and flowing across the plains through the middle
of next week. With that said, NBM data keeps temperatures generally below
seasonal levels, along with chances of precipitation areawide into the
middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Winds will be light and diurnally driven.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion