Veterans Admin Fac, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

600
FXUS64 KBMX 031835
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
135 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1248 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
- Dry conditions continue through Saturday as drought continues
   to worsen across Central Alabama.
- A weak disturbance in the Gulf will bring 20-30% rain chances
   Sunday through early next week, but chances of rainfall
   amounts exceeding 1 inch remain very low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
Dry and rain free conditions will continue through the short
term. High pressure is centered just of the NJ coast extending
WSW-ward into E Conus with ERLY flow into AL. Winds are a tad
elevated with tighter surface pressure gradients around the ridge
with mixing, resulting in a few gusts here and there across C AL.
While there is a mix of clouds about, precip is not expected
without any deep moisture or focus. Another cool night is expected
tonight with similar temps with readings from the mid 50s N to
the lower 60s S. Temps will have no problem rebounding on
Saturday with another nice day expected and highs from the upper
70s E to middle 80s W.
08
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
No major changes were made in the extended forecast. Guidance
continues to indicate a pattern shift for the latter part of the
weekend and into next week. We will have a low to moderate chance
of diurnally induced showers and tstorms starting Sun afternoon
with gradual moisture increasing. Highs will continue to have an
E-W gradient for the most part with mid-upper 70s E to lower-mid
80s W. This is near normal to slightly above normal highs for C AL
for early Oct. Lows moderate upward some as we progress through
the extended through the middle of next week. A cold front does
appear to approach and tease us with some low to moderate rain
chances. However, moisture is sufficient somewhat limited along
with QPF, even with frontal forcing and not likely to make a dent
in the ongoing drought conditions. On the bright side, temps have
a medium to high chance of going down across the NRN half of the
area for next weekend behind the front. The SRN half of the area
may only have a minimal cool down, as chances are lower as to the
confidence of the SWD extent of the frontal progression on Thu.
08
Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
The pattern begins to shift as we head into the weekend. The upper
ridge will shift towards the east coast as a trough moves across the
Plains. Meanwhile, a mid-level low will linger along the northern
Gulf coast over the weekend. A weak surface low looks to track
across FL over the weekend and into the eastern Gulf. There is
some uncertainty as to whether or not this feature will remain
intact or wash out as it moves west. Regardless, a healthy plume
of moisture will spread inland, leading to increased rain chances
late this weekend into next week. Will continue with low to
moderate chances for showers and thunderstorms through the middle
of next week as ample moisture remains in place. By mid to late
week, an upper trough ejects across the Great Lakes region while
pushing a cold front our way.
Despite increased rain chances late this weekend and into next week,
most of us will remain dry. Dry conditions and warm temps with highs
in the mid 80s will likely result in worsening of our ongoing
moderate to extreme drought. The recent monthly drought outlook
doesn`t look good for us with additional drought development
likely.
95/Castillo
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR TAFs are expected for the next 24 hours. A mix of VFR cigs
will be present at times, but rain is not expected with surface
ridging still in somewhat control. Slightly tighter gradients
today and Saturday will allow for a few gusts at times (15-22kt).
Otherwise, sustained winds should be ERLY 7-12kts during the day
with mixing. Overnight should be mainly light and variable, but
may be light ERLY at times as well.
08
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain-free conditions are expected until Sunday. RH values will drop
into the 30s across our western areas this afternoon. A moderate
risk of significant fire potential is outlooked today across
portions of the area, but min RHs and winds are forecast to be
under Red Flag criteria. Regardless, outdoor burning remains
highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. 20-30% rain
chances return to the forecast Sunday through the middle of next
week, but no wetting rainfall is expected. Amounts will be too
light to mitigate the worsening drought.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     55  82  61  84 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    57  81  64  81 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  60  83  66  84 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  60  86  67  85 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      60  85  66  84 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      60  81  66  81 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  62  84  67  84 /   0   0   0  20
Troy        61  81  66  83 /   0   0   0  20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08/95/Castillo
AVIATION...08

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion