Verona, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

353
FXUS63 KMKX 250158
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
858 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Beach Hazards Statement for Racine and Kenosha County beaches
  through 7 AM CDT Thursday. Life threatening waves and
  currents are expected. Stay out of the water and stay away
  from dangerous areas like piers and breakwalls. There is a
  moderate swim risk for Milwaukee County during this time
  period.
- Isolated showers/sprinkles possible along the Lake Michigan
  shoreline through early Thursday morning (10-20% chance).
- Increasing chances for fog tonight, particularly over the
  western half of the area.
- Above normal temperatures return this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 852 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Skies have cleared across the western half of the area early
this evening, with IR satellite showing broken to overcast skies
further east. The clear skies have allowed for efficient
radiational cooling to the along/west of Interstate 39, where
surface observations are indicating calm winds/the beginnings of
a decoupling nocturnal boundary layer. With skies anticipated to
remain mostly clear through the overnight, have thus knocked
temperatures back across the western half of the area through
sunrise Thursday morning. Should the boundary layer remain
decoupled, fog development will also become favored moving
deeper into the overnight/predawn hours. Afternoon forecast does
a good job of capturing this potential, with no refinements
needed in the evening update. Whether/not any fog will become
dense remains uncertain, with trends to be monitored through
tonight. Low clouds have been stubborn over east-central and
southeastern Wisconsin, resulting in slightly milder
temperatures. Have thus made some minor upward adjustments to
the overnight temp forecast across eastern areas, but refrained
from more significant adjustments given that short term forecast
guidance suggests clearing after midnight. Currently lingering
clouds & uncertainty regarding how quickly they`ll clear makes
fog potential more uncertain across east-central and
southeastern Wisconsin tonight, though trends will be monitored.
Should skies clear fast enough, could see the anticipated
western fog development sneak further east toward Lake Michigan.
Quigley
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 311 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Tonight through Thursday night:
Light northerly winds continue across the majority of southern
Wisconsin, while overcast skies continue and keep temperatures in
the mid 60s across much of the region. More sunshine in
southwestern to far southern Wisconsin may allow for temperatures
in the lower 70s. Winds will diminish to become light and variable
overnight, with patchy fog developing in southwestern Wisconsin
as clouds clear into the late overnight hours. Locally dense fog
is possible in low-lying areas. Also overnight, a lake effect
shower band will develop, bringing a few isolated showers and
sprinkles to Lake Michigan counties (10-20% chance). This band
will move offshore into Thursday morning as low pressure in the
Ohio Valley propagates farther east, with dry conditions and
clearing skies expected through Thursday.
High temperatures in the low to mid 70s on Thursday, with
northwesterly breezes throughout the day. High pressure and
plenty of sunshine are expected. Overnight Thursday, winds again
become light and variable with lows in the lower 50s (upper 50s
to lower 60s near Lake Michigan).
MH
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 311 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Friday through Wednesday:
High pressure continues to dominate the pattern through Friday,
although a shortwave will propagate eastward through northern
Manitoba into northern Ontario Friday night into Saturday. This
will allow for southwesterly winds to develop and persist
through the weekend, bringing high temperatures in the low to
mid-80s this weekend into early next week. Subsidence to the
west of an active Atlantic ocean may reinforce surface high
pressure and allow for continued warming through the early week.
However, going into Tuesday and Wednesday high pressure will
shift northeastward, bringing easterly flow off Lake Michigan
and leading to slightly less impressive high temperatures in the
middle to upper 70s by Wednesday.
MH
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 855 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Mix of MVFR and VFR flight categories prevails this evening,
with stubborn low clouds lingering over portions of southeast
and east-central Wisconsin. Have accounted for observational
trends through the near-term at eastern terminals, and will
continue to monitor trends through this evening and tonight.
BR/FG is anticipated along/west of I-39 later tonight given
clear skies and light surface winds. Whether any FG/BR
development will occur in the vicinity of MSN or JVL remains
uncertain, with prevailing mentions to be inserted should trends
warrant. Any categorical reductions (be it CIG or VIS) should
improve by mid-morning Thursday.
Quigley
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 311 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Gusty north winds will continue into Thursday morning and become
northwesterly by Thursday afternoon, as low pressure slowly
moves northeast across the Ohio River Valley. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for elevated waves south of North Point
Lighthouse through early Thursday morning. Winds ease late
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as high pressure moves
over the region. Some lake effect showers may occur with the
north winds through the rest of today and through Thursday.
Conditions continue to look unsupportive of waterspout activity.
Variable winds on Friday should then give way to south to
southwest winds Saturday, as high pressure exits to the east and
low pressure develops over northern Manitoba and treks eastward
through the weekend.
CMiller/MH
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ071-WIZ072 until 7 AM Thursday.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM Thursday.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion