Venice, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

197
FXUS64 KLIX 230528
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
1 - Much-needed rain returns to the forecast ahead of a midweek
    cold front.
2 - In the wake of the cold front, a return to near normal
    temperatures can be expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Convection quickly dissipated late yesterday afternoon and early
evening with the rest of the night quiet. Dewpoints generally
remain in the lower to mid 70s and with temps having dropped into
the lower to mid 70s across most the area before 5z temps will
likely only drop another few degrees. The one location that may
see temps continue to fall through the early morning is coastal Ms
that was still near 80 at 5z.
Forecast for today looks to be drier than yesterday. The weak
impulse that led to the convection yesterday is moving through the
area and will be east of the CWA before sunrise. This places us on
the backside with rising hghts. H5 hghts are expected to rise around
5 dm in 24 hrs from 18/21z yesterday. That will lead to an increase
in suppression and hurt convection, likely keeping isolated storms
at best this afternoon across northwestern portions of the CWA. It
will also lead to at least one more day of lower to mid 90s highs.
After today things look to finally become more favorable for rain
and slightly cooler temps at the end of the week and into the
weekend. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Medium range models in fairly decent agreement with the pattern
through the rest of the work week and into the weekend. There are
some slight differences in the strength of a few features the
deeper we get into the forecast but the overall pattern is
consistent. Still looks pretty decent that we finally get a good
wetting rain for the second half of the work week with a weak cold
front moving through.
As we move into Wednesday we will see the rain chances climb
considerably compared to today. A lead impulse which is currently
moving through the 4 corners will cross the southern Plains and into
the Lower MS Valley Wednesday. This impulse will help to suppress
the ridge that will be building in over the area behind yesterday`s
weak disturbance. Moisture will also be increasing with PWs climbing
above 2". Combine the falling hghts, increasing lift, and increasing
moisture and after enough daytime heating we will see scattered
convection develop. There may even be numerous storms across the
northwestern/northern areas.
This is all ahead of the main trough and approaching cold front. A
deep closed low will begin to move into the Great LAkes Thursday
with the L/W trough axis extending back to the SSE. The trough axis
will not move through the CWA completely until late Friday. This
also will lead to the weak cold front moving into the CWA Thursday
and eventually moving through the area and into the Gulf midday
Friday. Ahead of the front moisture will pile up. With the front
being rather weak and slow, mid lvl flow not exactly paralleling it
but not helping it to surge south, we could see a some pockets of
heavy rain. PWs will be rather high and if they are abv 2" as models
suggest that would be above the 90th percentile which is a drastic
increase from what we have seen the last week plus. Numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and a few locations could
quickly see a few inches of rain which would be a very welcome sight
for most of the area.
The front finally moves into the coastal waters Friday. Until then
rain will remain likely and until the trough moves through rain will
remain at least possible. Slightly cooler air will filter in behind
it and drier air will push in Friday night. Depending on how much
rain occurs lows should fall into the lower to mid 60s again this
weekend. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conditions will continue at all terminals throughout this
forecast cycle. Only impact will be isolated storms across western
terminals this afternoon but that should change Wednesday. Prob30
remains in a few terminals. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Surface high pressure will remain centered just off to the east-
northeast of the coastal waters through Wednesday. This will
continue to result in benign conditions with generally light
southerly winds. An approaching cold front will result in higher
rain chances beginning Thursday, with winds and seas becoming more
chaotic in the vicinity of storms. As the front moves into the Gulf
Friday, high pressure will build in from the northwest resulting in
a period of offshore winds through the weekend. Outside of
thunderstorms, no marine hazards expected. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  71  90  70 /  20  10  60  70
BTR  93  74  91  73 /  40  10  70  70
ASD  90  72  91  72 /  10   0  40  50
MSY  93  76  93  76 /  20  10  40  40
GPT  88  74  89  73 /  10   0  30  40
PQL  90  70  90  72 /   0   0  20  30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion