Vallscreek, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

105
FXUS61 KRLX 242217
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
617 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms continues
into the weekend as multiple disturbances affect the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 600 PM Wednesday...
Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder continue across
NE KY, SE OH, and the northern WV lowlands in the vicinity of an
area of weak low-level convergence and modest instability that
developed this afternoon given mostly cloudy skies, all amid
broad scale southwesterly flow, funneling in ample moisture
from well to the southwest. Given PWAT values of 1.6 to 1.8 and
mean steering flow of ~15-20kts, locally heavy rain of up to
1-1.5"/hr has been falling in a few locations, leading to the
potential for isolated high water issues in a few spots,
primarily across the Huntington area thus far. Given further
activity developing off to the southwest and mean upper level
flow near parallel to the forcing axis, the potential for
training of showers/storms exists overnight, leading to
additional heavy rain and hydro concerns overnight into Thursday
morning. Have updated PoPs into early tonight to correlate
better with current radar trends, and have also added a heavy
rain mention into the forecast through the overnight. The rest
of the forecast remains on track.
As of 1245 PM Wednesday...
Gloomy weather prompted by surface low pressure and its attendant
frontal boundary will prevail through the forecast period. The
area will remain entrenched beneath overcast skies embedded with
passing showers and the occasional rumble of thunder. At the
time of writing, rain was streaming from southwest to northeast
both along the Ohio River Valley and the spine of the
Appalachians, with no indications of lightning. Deep
southwesterly flow sponsored by this weather feature will
continue to encourage periods of moderate to heavy rain
overnight into Thursday. The surface front will be oriented
through the heart of Ohio during much of the period, but will
begin to drift eastward late Thursday evening and into the
beginning of the short term forecast period.
Mesoanalysis depicts some amounts of instability and shear are
present over the area this afternoon, but not quite enough to
muster much in the way of strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms. SPC has slashed any concern for severe with
today`s forecast, bringing us back down to a general
thunderstorm risk for both today and Thursday.
Attention will then be more upon hydro concerns as we progress
through the near term period. Very dry antecedent soil
conditions ahead of this event has helped to soak up this
steady and beneficial rainfall so far today, with flash flood
guidance not exceeded thus far. Continuous rounds of rain
tonight into Thursday may foster some local ponding and trouble
spots, but widespread flooding potential remains low in this
event. This rainfall will hopefully slash away at the ongoing
drought here in the forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Wednesday...
A cold front will make eastward progress through the forecast
area overnight Thursday into Friday morning, bringing rain
chances to a gradual end. However, enough lingering moisture
along the higher terrain may spur isolated showers and a rumble
of thunder during peaking heating hours Friday afternoon.
What was once looking like a dry weekend has steered towards a
more active state as the base of an upper level trough festers
over the heart of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Global models
are on board of this trough closing off into a cut out low in
close quarters to the forecast area. This feature will spawn
showers and storms for most locations east of the Ohio River on
Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Wednesday...
The cut off low/upper level trough feature first mentioned in
the short term period will continue to reside over the forecast
area for the end of the weekend. This feature remains in
somewhat of a holding pattern in response to tropical activity
churning over the Atlantic that is slated to meander close to
the eastern seaboard for the remainder of the valid forecast
period. As a result, daily opportunities for diurnally driven
activity looks plausible for the mountains and central lowlands
from Sunday onward. Surface high pressure parked to the west of
the area will attempt to counteract shower and storm
development, but opted to maintain low end chance POPs suggested
by central guidance for each day in the long term period.
Temperatures will slightly rebound late in the weekend into the
start of next week in the midst of the upper level blocking
pattern. Afternoon highs will range in the mid 60s to 70s along
our mountain zones and cresting above the 80 degree marker
across the lower elevations.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Wednesday...
Our airspace remains entrenched beneath low to mid level stratus
today with embedded showers and occasional thunderstorms. At the
time of writing, a mixed bag of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions were
scattered across the forecast area, with terminals anticipated
to continue bouncing in and out of restrictions throughout the
day. A nearby frontal boundary will remain draped over the
region overnight into Thursday with very little movement of the
front expected to occur within the valid TAF period.
General thinking will be sub-VFR ceilings prevailing overnight,
with local variability between MVFR/IFR/LIFR as the night
marches on, followed by slow improvements to widespread MVFR
heading into Thursday afternoon. Surface visibilities will
occasionally be tarnished by passing showers and storms through
the period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rainfall and associated
restrictions will likely vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions are possible with heavier
showers or thunderstorms throughout the work week. IFR is also
possible at night with low stratus and/or fog.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK/GW
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MEK

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion