Vallonia Springs New York Weather Forecast Discussion

422
FXUS61 KBGM 100528
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
128 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will persist through the first half of the weekend.
Areas of frost and sub-freezing temperatures are expected
tonight into Friday morning. A coastal system will likely bring
rain to the area late Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Abundant sunshine is present this afternoon as high pressure
remains in control. However, with a cool airmass in place (850mb
temperatures only around -2C), temperatures are well below
normal for this time of the year as afternoon highs will only be
in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
The setup for a widespread freeze remains nearly perfect for
tonight with ideal radiational cooling conditions present as the
high pressure system will be directly overhead. Lows are
expected to be in the mid 20s to lower 30s for most of the area,
with some lower 20s across the usual colder spots, especially
northern Oneida County and parts of the Catskills. Freeze
Warnings remain in effect for most of the area, with the
exception of Yates, Seneca, and southern Cayuga counties (Frost
Advisories are in effect for those three counties).
High pressure will move to the east on Friday, which will result
in a southerly return flow and warmer temperatures (closer to
normal for this time of the year). Highs are expected to be in
the upper 50s to mid 60s under sunny skies once again. Then
seasonably cool temperatures are expected Friday night with lows
in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The warming trend will continue on Saturday with highs expected
to be in the 60s for the large majority of the region. Skies
will start out mostly sunny in the morning, but cloud cover will
increase ahead of an approaching coastal system. This system
will interact with an upper low that drops south over the Great
Lakes. With an increase of moisture being advected into the
region, some showers may move into the region overnight Saturday,
though chances look better for late Sunday into Monday.
Confidence continues to increase in seeing rainfall from a
coastal low pressure system moving northward interacting with
an upper level low dropping southeastward from the Great Lakes.
Timing remains a bit uncertain, as it is possible that most of
the rain holds off until later in the day Sunday, or even Sunday
night. Locally moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible, but
this will largely be welcome rainfall due to the large rain
deficit we have seen. What also remains uncertain is how far
west this rainfall gets; it is possible that the heaviest rain
remains east of the area/closer to the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some lingering rain showers will be possible on Monday as the
low moves further offshore, but the general trend will be rain
tapering off from west to east as the day progresses. Wraparound
moisture may be enough to keep some lingering showers around
into Tuesday, but otherwise the midweek period is trending
drier.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure is in place with dry conditions with VFR
prevailing at all terminals. ELM has a small chance at IFR fog
but confidence is very low so any restrictions were not put in
the TAFs. Some low clouds try to work into the region after 0Z
this evening but may not be thick or widespread enough to cause
any MVFR cigs.
Outlook...
Friday night through Sunday morning...Mainly VFR; areas of
morning low clouds/valley fog.
Late Sunday into Monday...Watching a coastal low with showers
possible and associated restrictions.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ009-018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ015>017.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...AJG

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion