455 FXUS66 KSGX 232040 AFDSGXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 140 PM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS... Warmer today with temperatures reaching the mid nineties in portions of the inland valleys. Low pressure moving into central and then southern California will bring cooling for Wednesday through the end of the week. There could be showers for Friday and Saturday with the chance for measurable rainfall of 15 to 30 percent. Then dry and gradually warmer into early next week.
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.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...
This afternoon, the closed upper low is now about 400 miles southwest of San Diego with decreasing mid and high clouds moving northwest, and cumulus clouds developing over the mtns. There is little vertical development of the cumulus clouds due to a stable environment. A few marine layer low clouds have developed off the San Diego coast but are not yet moving ashore. Temperatures are generally higher than at this time yesterday and as much as 16 degrees higher in some inland locations.
From previous discussion... The closed upper low will move into central California on Wednesday and into southern California for Thursday night and Friday. It will bring a cooling trend for Wednesday through Friday with high temperatures for inland areas 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Friday than today. Showers/tstms associated with the low will remain west and north of Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside and San Diego Counties.
Model solutions remain in good agreement through Sat with respect to the position and timing of the low to our southwest. As the low moves southeast across SoCal, it will bring a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers (mainly in the mountains) for Friday and Saturday along with a slight chance of thunderstorms. The cooling trend will continue into Friday with Friday high temperatures as much as 5 to 10 degrees below average for the mountains and inland valleys. High temperatures on Friday will range from the lower 70s near the coast to upper 70s to mid 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower to mid 90s for the lower deserts.
Dry and gradually warmer for Sat into early next week, with temperatures a few degrees above seasonal averages west of the mtns on Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday will range from the 70s near the coast to around 90 for the Inland Empire with the mid to upper 90s for the lower deserts.
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.AVIATION... 232015Z....Coast...VFR conditions expected along the coast through 05z when low clouds around 600-1000 feet MSL redevelop and move inland 5-10 miles. TEMPO groups were added to coastal sites for possible intermittent cigs around 600 feet MSL and vis 5-6 SM. More uniform coverage is expected by 12-15z Wednesday, before clearing by 17-18Z.
Otherwise...VFR conditions continue with SCT clouds 10-15k feet MSL, and SCT cumulus at 8000 feet MSL over mountains through 01Z. Skies will be mostly clear after 06z at inland locations with a few clouds around 25000 feet MSL Wednesday.
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.MARINE... Wednesday and Thursday afternoon/evenings, winds may gust up to 20kts at times near San Clemente Island. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday.
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.SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
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.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None.
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PUBLIC...PG AVIATION/MARINE...Villafane/Zuber
NWS SGX Office Area Forecast Discussion