Tyre, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

387
FXUS61 KBGM 271038
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
638 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of a few isolated showers Saturday night around the
Poconos and southern Catskills, dry weather will be in store
through the weekend and through next week, with high pressure
largely in control. Temperatures will be on the rise this
weekend and will remain above average through Tuesday, but near
freezing overnight temperatures could occur in some places
Wednesday and Thursday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will be over the area today with warm and dry
conditions to start the weekend. There will be some high clouds
as a weak surface low and upper trough track along the Mid
Atlantic Coast. This low moves offshore by early Sunday and
enough moisture could sneak northward for a low chance of
showers tonight across NE PA, mainly the Poconos, and the
southern Catskills. However, at this time, our area will be on
the outer fringe of the precipitation shield with this system,
so any rain that does make it to our CWA will be light. Finally,
areas of valley fog will return again overnight with lows
generally in the 50s. High pressure will be overhead again on
SUnday with temperatures well above normal for the end of
September.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build back in for the upcoming week and
lead to the start of another prolonged period of dry conditions
for the region. Lows Sunday night range from the mid 40s to the
mid 50s with good radiational cooling in the dry airmass.
Monday looks to start with sunshine, then high clouds are
expected to start streaming in from the south, but it will
remain quite warm with highs in the mid 70s to around 80
degrees. Cloud cover Monday night will keep low temperatures in
the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Model trends continue to show a potential tropical system
possibly reaching the Southeast coast around Tuesday of next
week. Over our region, a strong area of high pressure is
expected to push south of out Canada and would keep any
precipitation associated with the tropical system shunted to the
south. Dry conditions are now expected through the entire period.
Cool and dry Canadian air filters in from the north Wednesday
and this will lead to more seasonable temperatures by Wednesday
and Thursday. This airmass will also likely increase the
frost/freeze risk, especially Wednesday night and possibly
Thursday as well.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Current IFR and lower conditions at ELM/BGM will clear up by
mid-morning, leaving VFR conditions across the region today.
Guidance is showing fog developing again tonight, but confidence
in its coverage is low as a low pressure system passing to the
east could keep winds active into the overnight hours. ELM
should be far enough west to see winds go calm and fog develop,
producing IFR and lower restrictions.
Outlook...
Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. IFR valley fog will be
possible in the early morning hours.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...DK/MPK
LONG TERM...DK/MPK
AVIATION...JTC

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion