Twin Rock, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

987
FXUS65 KPUB 232352
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
552 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lingering showers will bring rain to portions of the area, and
snow to the high mountain peaks, through early Wednesday morning.
- Cool temperatures through Wednesday, with frost possible in the
San Luis Valley.
- Temperatures are expected to warm through the second half of
  the week, with generally dry conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Currently...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over portions of the I-25
corridor, as of about 3pm, with the rest of the precipitation
confined north of the Palmer Divide. Even so, the few storms that
have managed to fire are relatively weak, and already dissipating.
Otherwise, temperatures already peaked this afternoon, kept a bit on
the low side due to some lingering clouds earlier in the day.
Rest of Today and Tonight...
Cool, post-frontal airmass will remain in place the rest of today
and into tonight. Showers will linger tonight, largely confined to
our southeast mountains, central mountains, and the north side of
the Palmer Divide, bringing steady rain to most areas and light snow
above 11-thousand feet. Overnight lows will dip into the 40s over
most of the plains, nearing 50 further east. For the valleys, low-
mid 30s are expected. A Frost Advisory starts at 3am for the San
Luis Valley, due to cold temperatures posing risk to vulnerable
vegetation.
Wednesday...
Cool air remains in place Wednesday behind the departing trough. As
an upper ridge begins to build in over the region, we will see below-
normal temperatures and clearing skies, after some lingering showers
over the plains dissipate in the morning. High temperatures will be
in the 60s-70s across the CWA. Otherwise, conditions will remain
calm and generally dry, outside of some isolated POPs over the
southern mountains in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Wednesday Night and Thursday..
Apart from frost chances across the San Luis Valley first thing in
the morning, impactful weather conditions are not expected for this
forecast period. Models keep the blocking pattern over the region,
with the ridge axis more overhead than Wednesday, as a low tries to
push onshore over California. Daytime highs look to climb back up to
seasonal normals on Thursday for most locations under mostly clear
skies. This will mean highs in the 70s for mountain valleys and the
Pikes Peak region, with low 80s elsewhere on the plains.
Friday Onwards..
Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement with bringing the low
down south into the Baja Peninsula by Friday afternoon, before
eventually ejecting it out into the desert southwest through the
weekend. Models show very little agreement, however, with the path
that the low could take once it does eject out towards the four
corners region. The Canadian keeps a closed low to our southwest
heading into Sunday evening, with the GFS favoring a more open wave,
and the EC showing a negatively tilted trough with significant rain
chances for Monday and Tuesday. No matter the end result, it seems
that Friday will bring above normal temperatures with dry
conditions. Saturday and Sunday will likely see more near normal
temperatures, along with the return of showers and thunderstorms
over and near the higher terrain. A cool down and increased chance
for more widespread precipitation chances may be likely by the time
we get to the beginning of next week or so.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A broad upper trough will continue to lift out across the
Rockies with wraparound moisture bringing chances of showers
to COS and PUB into early Wednesday morning. With that said,
expecting mainly VFR conditions at COS and PUB, with brief
MVFR cigs and vis possible through 12Z Drier air works into
the area through the day tomorrow, with cigs rising and skies
clearing Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Gusty northerly
winds to persist at COS and PUB through the evening, before
decoupling through the overnight hours. Northerly winds
continue at the terminals Wednesday morning, before becoming
east to southeast Wednesday afternoon.
VFR conditions expected at ALS through the night, with clearing
skies and light winds into the overnight hours leading to
IFR/LIFR conditions in fog around sunrise. Fog dissipates by
14Z, with VFR conditons under clear skies and light winds
through the rest of the taf period.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MW

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion