Tuxedo, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

858
FXUS64 KSJT 240615
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
115 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increased chance of showers and thunderstorms today. A few of
  these storms could be strong.
- Heavy rainfall this morning could result in areas localized
  flooding.
- Cooler temperatures and dry weather late this week and this
  weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The combination of mid to upper level lift, a cold front and
a favorable upper level jet will result in medium to high chances
of showers and thunderstorms today through this evening. Also, PW
values of 1.5 to 1.75 inches will result in possible localized
flooding, especially south of I-20. No severe weather is expected,
but a few storms may be strong with the main hazard being gusty
winds. Much cooler today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The cold front that brought rain chances during the day on Wednesday
will have moved into south central Texas by Wednesday evening. Some
residual lift is expected from the last of a mid-level impulse
passing through the region.  As a result, a few lingering showers
could still occur overnight from the Concho Valley southward, but
rainfall amounts should be fairly light.
For Thursday and Friday, quieter weather is in store as surface high
pressure will fill in behind the front. A cooler airmass, to the
tune of 15-18 deg C at 850mb, should overspread the region both
days.  This should translate to high temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s which is near normal for this time of year.  By late
Friday, the surface high will shift eastward and allow southerly
return flow to set up for this weekend and temperatures will return
to the low 90s for Saturday and Sunday. Models are in general
agreement of an upper-level low forming over southern California on
Saturday. However, models diverge significantly from run to run on
how to evolve this feature for early next week. The most recent runs
show this upper low becoming an open wave over the Desert Southwest
on Monday and having little to no effect on west central Texas.
Earlier runs show the low holding together and and perhaps bringing
some more rain chances to the region.  For now, the forecast for
Saturday through Monday was kept dry with temperatures near normal
as the region will be under an upper-level ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop late tonight
and Wednesday across much of the area and have thunder at all of
the terminals for several hours. Will watch radar trends for
possible amendments probably after 10Z. Otherwise, widespread
MVFR/local IFR ceilings will develop at the terminals during the
morning hours and continue through much of the afternoon. Ceilings
will rise to low end VFR after 25/00Z. Also, a cold front moves
through and winds become north with a few gusts to 20 knots
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     83  61  85  59 /  70   0   0   0
San Angelo  79  59  84  57 /  70  20   0   0
Junction    84  62  87  56 /  70  40  10   0
Brownwood   81  61  85  56 /  80  10   0   0
Sweetwater  83  61  85  60 /  70   0   0   0
Ozona       81  61  85  59 /  70  30  10   0
Brady       79  61  83  57 /  80  20   0   0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...21

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion