Tuckahoe, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

239
FXUS61 KOKX 262107
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
507 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region for the first part of the
weekend. A disturbance brings a chance for rain Saturday night
before a weak front pushes through on Sunday. High pressure
remains across the region and gets reinforced from the north
towards late week. Low pressure areas remain well south and
southeast of the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will remain over the region tonight. This will result
in a generally light flow and dry conditions. Lows will be in the
middle 50s to low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure is forecast to remain in place on Saturday with
mostly dry conditions, though an increase in cloud cover can be
expected during the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s.
An upper level trough approaches the area from the southwest late
Saturday. As the high weakens, the surface trough will advect
moisture northward into the area. This will bring the chance for
showers, mainly Saturday evening and Saturday night. We are
generally looking at a light to possibly moderate rainfall
approaching from the south, though it`s northward extent is still
fairly uncertain. The best chance for rainfall will be for the
southern coastal areas, mainly Long Island. Rainfall amounts have
come down a bit, closer to a quarter of an inch, however can not
rule out some locally higher amounts. There is a chance that POPs
will increase more than currently forecast based on model
uncertainty. NBM POPs seem to be lower than the 12z GFS/NAM, however
are a bit more inline with the 12z EURO and Canadian models.
Showers should gradually dissipate as the weak area of low
pressure shifts east of the area and a weak front moves through.
High pressure is once again expected to begin building into the area
Sunday and Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will be in the middle to
upper 70s to lower 80s, with the cooler areas being easternmost
areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains across the region early into midweek and then
gets reinforced as another high pressure area builds southward into
the region going into late week. A steep pressure gradient sets up
towards mid to late week with strong high pressure to the north and
the tropical cyclone lows in the Western Atlantic, one of which will
be Humberto. The high pressure to the north keeps the area dry as
the tropical cyclones are forecast to stay far away from the local
region but winds from the NE become more gusty with the increase in
pressure gradient.
The forecast has trended drier compared to the previous forecast.
Similar to the previous forecast, temperatures will be on a general
downward trend next week from early to late week. The main constant
next week will be a significant easterly component to the winds.
Gusty NE flow expected late Tuesday through Thursday. Utilized a
blend of NBM and NBM 90th percentile for winds and wind gusts during
this time period.
With the continuous easterly flow and fetch, minor coastal flooding
may be possible past midweek along with the possibility of high
surf.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds in through tonight and remains in control
through Saturday.
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Westerly winds
at 10kt or less. S-SW sea breezes for KJFK,KBDR,KGON and likely
KISP. Light NW to N winds tonight with some locations more
variable in direction especially in the evening. S to SE sea
breezes anticipated for Saturday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday aftn/eve: VFR.
Sunday: Chance of morning showers and MVFR conditions. VFR in the
afternoon.
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: VFR. NE gusts around 20kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels through Sunday.
Sub-SCA initially Monday with conditions remaining below SCA
thresholds as high pressure remains in control. SCA level wind
gusts forecast Tuesday through Thursday with a steepening
pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low
pressure to the south. Seas build to SCA levels also during this
timeframe across the ocean with potential seas up to 10 ft for
parts of the ocean.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip current risk for local ocean beaches remains moderate into
this evening. This is due to residual onshore swell 3 to 4 ft
and southerly flow of near 5 to 8 kts.
Rip current risk for local ocean beaches this weekend is low.
This is due to residual onshore swell around 2 ft and light
onshore flow of near 5 to 8 kts.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion