Tsail, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

406
FXUS65 KFGZ 262033
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
133 PM MST Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the region through Sunday. Some stronger storms may
contain large hail, damaging winds, and very heavy rainfall, which
could lead to flash flooding. Conditions dry out by early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Active day started early with severe storms firing
over the Phoenix Metro area and moving up into southwestern
Yavapai County and Gila Counties. The best dynamics have shifted
south to this location as well as the lower deserts of central and
southern Arizona and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued
until 7pm for this area. Main risks continue to be strong winds,
large hail, and even a funnel cloud or an isolated weak tornado
may be possible. The cause of today`s active pattern continues to
be the cutoff Low pressure system over California which is now
entering the Lower Colorado River Valley and plans to park over
Yuma the next couple days. As a result, expect another round of
showers and storms for Saturday throughout most of the area. A few
storms could still hit severe levels but not expecting as many
severe storms as we`re seeing today.
During the day Sunday this cutoff Low finally begins to weaken
and open up into a wave and track off to the east. The area will
see one final round of showers and thunderstorms, but with cooler
temperatures being mixed down to the surface over the last couple
days, these storms aren`t expected to be as strong as the previous
days. By Monday the westerlies take back over and judging by the
long range models, this likely signals the end of the Monsoon and
the beginning of Pacific Storm season. However for the first half
of the week, it looks dry with southwesterly flow aloft and
temperatures that have been 10 degrees below average over the
weekend begin to warm back toward early Fall averages as the week
progresses.
&&
.AVIATION...Friday 26/18Z through Saturday 27/18Z...VFR to MVFR
conditions today, scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA through 06-10Z
Saturday. Winds SW-SE 10kts, gusts to 20kts. Strong, gusty and
erratic winds near SHRA/TSRA.
OUTLOOK...Saturday 27/18Z through Monday 29/18Z...VFR to MVFR
conditions expected. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA during the
daytime, isolated SHRA/TSRA overnight periods. SHRA/TSRA begins to
diminish west to east Sunday evening. Winds SE-SW 10kts daytime,
light and variable overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Scattered to numerous storms
continue on Saturday. A couple of the storms could reach severe
levels with downburst winds near 60 mph. On Sunday another round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur but are not expected
to become severe, although gusty winds near storms are still a
possibility. Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to move off to
the east Sunday night. Expect temperatures close to 10 degrees below
late September averages throughout the weekend. Winds will be
southerly at 5 to 15 mph.
Monday through Wednesday...Things dry out with no precipitation
expected. Temperatures begin to recover back up to seasonal averages
as the week progresses. Winds S-SW at 5 to 15 mph each day.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion