Toyah, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

310
FXUS64 KMAF 061816
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
116 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
- A cold front is expected to approach the area Tuesday, bringing
  cooler temperatures areawide and chances (10-35%) of isolated
  showers/storms across southeast New Mexico.
- Wednesday morning rain chances SE NM plains and Guadalupes, then afternoon
  rain chances Marfa Plateau into Terrell County followed by
  gusty easterly winds late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
  evening.
- Near zero rain chances and increasingly warm weather returns
  late week into the weekend as winds shift to south/southwest
  ahead of next storm system.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Water vapor imagery continues to show a deep upper-level trough
extending from Manitoba to off the coast of California, leaving
our area under southwesterly flow aloft. Highs this afternoon are
forecast to range from the mid 80s to low 90s for most, except for
mid to upper 90s along the Rio Grande and upper 70s to low 80s in
higher terrain. Tonight`s temperatures remain above normal as a
LLJ is expected to develop, allowing for mixing overnight.
Tuesday, a cold front will approach the area, bringing cooler
temperatures (3-8 F cooler than today`s highs for many). However,
the cold front may stall near or across our northern zones during
the day. CAM guidance depict a shortwave moving through southwest
flow aloft, bringing chances (10-35%) of isolated convection
across southeast New Mexico throughout the day Tuesday. No
severe weather is expected.
Greening
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Rain chances linger midweek as forcing in association with a
departing cold front and upper level system to the east is slow to
clear the area until later in the week. However, dew point
temperatures remain below mid 50s F, any local boundaries
providing greater focusing of moisture and lift will remain weak,
and easterly upslope winds remain light until the cold front has
largely cleared the area. Therefore, rain chances continue to be
low (15%-25%), with highest chances over SE NM plains into
Guadalupes in the morning and Marfa Plateau into Upper Trans
Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and Terrell County afternoon. Forecast
grids and ensembles are only indicating a few hundredths of an
inch rainfall if any over the Guadalupes, so no flooding is
anticipated at this time. Persistent cloud cover limiting daytime
heating keeps highs down in the lower to mid 80s F, 70s F higher
elevations, and upper 80s F to mid 90s F Rio Grande basins into
Terrell County. By late afternoon/evening, easterly winds become
gusty over Guadalupes into Marfa Plateau. Despite increased winds,
continued low boundary layer moisture/dew point temperatures and
clearing skies allow lows to fall into the mid to upper 50s F
higher elevations and surroundings foothills as well as cooler
spots of westernmost and northernmost SE NM plains into northwest
Permian Basin, with lower to mid 60s F elsewhere.
As mid to upper ridging builds back in Thursday and Friday and
winds become less gusty, highs in the mid to upper 80s F return
across the Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, and Stockton Plateau,
with lower 90s F over parts of Upper Trans Pecos along Pecos
River and easternmost Permian Basin in addition to along Rio
Grande by Friday. Lows remain similar to Wednesday as dew point
temperatures remain below 60 F. Over the weekend, winds turn more
southerly and then southwesterly ahead of the next mid to upper
system. The transport of warmer and drier air into the region with
south/southwest winds allows highs to rebound even further
Saturday. This will translate to lower to mid 90s F over much of
Upper Trans Pecos and northeast Permian Basin in addition along
Rio Grande into Terrell County by Saturday, and by Sunday, into
the lower to mid 90s F for much of the Permian Basin and Stockton
Plateau in addition to Terrell County, Rio Grande basins, and
basins of Culberson County with 80s F elsewhere. Lows will also
warm into the 60s F with 50s F retreating into higher elevations
and northernmost Lea County, but dew point temperatures remaining
below mid 50s F will continue to allow for efficient overnight
cooling despite the unseasonably warm temperatures. Forcing for
ascent, lift, and moisture will be very weak even with passing
clouds and gusty winds at times, so no rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Southeasterly winds will
persist throughout this period (except easterly at PEQ). Winds are
forecast to become breezy this afternoon, with brief gusts around
20kts possible.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               63  87  62  82 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 65  84  63  80 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                   66  88  67  85 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton            65  87  64  84 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           60  77  58  72 /   0  10  20  10
Hobbs                    60  82  59  79 /   0  10  20  10
Marfa                    55  81  56  76 /   0  10  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     64  86  64  83 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   64  86  64  82 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     65  87  64  83 /   0  10  10  10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...55

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion