Toivola, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

467
FXUS63 KMQT 011846
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
246 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and low impact weather continues through the work week.
- Unseasonable warmth returns this weekend with daytime highs
  15-20 degrees above normal. High temperature records could be
  tied or broken across several spots.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
As a shortwave traverses the Upper Great Lakes today through
tonight, expect upper-level cloud cover across the area as sfc high
pressure ridging continues to keep the U.P. dry today through
Thursday. However, with the cloud cover overhead throughout the rest
of the day today, expect high temperatures today to be a little
cooler than what we`ve seen the past couple of days, with most spots
only getting into the mid 60s in the east to mid 70s in the west.
With the high pressure ridging`s center east of the U.P. today to
this weekend, expect warm air advection to continue advecting into
the region, allowing above normal temperatures to continue pumping
into the area. With some moisture from the Gulf also being advected
in, no fire weather concerns are expected the rest of today through
Thursday, although we could see min RHs drop down into the upper 30
percents in the west Thursday afternoon. While the cloud cover looks
to keep lows in the 50s tonight, expect mostly sunny skies to return
Thursday, allowing high temperatures to once again soar up to around
80F in the western half, especially in the southerly wind downslopes
near Lake Superior.
Rain chances for this weekend have further diminished as guidance
continues to shift the rain chances further north as the track of
the parent low has trends a further west than what was previously
predicted. Thus, while the NAEFS ensemble keeps PWATs around or
above normal through this weekend (0.75 to 1+ inch), if we do not
receive any rainfall this weekend, we could see some fire weather
concerns if we see another warm air later this October as some
record highs and temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal could
help dry things out this weekend (the NAEFS shows temperatures
getting near to the max of modeled climatology across portions of
Upper Michigan). While a couple of cold front`s look to potentially
bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Thursday evening
through Friday morning and again late Sunday to Monday, not much in
the way of widespread rainfall is expected; some spots may receive a
wetting rainfall (0.10-0.20+ inches) while others may see very
little.
As colder air enters into the area next week, expect temperatures to
drop down close to around normal for early October. Behind the
second cold front (coming late Sunday time frame), we could see some
breezy conditions across the U.P. due to colder air advecting into
the region. In addition, we could see some lake effect precipitation
by mid next week as a shortwave potentially drops across the Upper
Great Lakes and 850mb temps potentially could drop to as low as -3C.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
High pressure maintains VFR conditions across Upper Michigan through
the period. SE winds around 10 kt will shift more southerly at 5-10
kt tonight into Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Southeast winds of 20 to 30 knots over the central lake this
afternoon weaken to southerly winds of 20 to 25 knots tonight as low
pressure troughing continues to develop over the Plains. The
southerly winds continue over the eastern half of the lake until
Thursday night, when winds weaken to 20 knots or less. We may see a
few showers and thunderstorms over the lake late Thursday through
Friday morning associated with a shortwave low passing over the
western lake. However, with the better forcing mechanics north and
west of the area, no severe weather is expected. Winds increase from
the south to 20 to 25 knots once again on Saturday as another
shortwave low approaches the area from the Plains but misses us to
the west and north this weekend. As this occurs, expect the
southerly winds to increase up to 25 to 30 knots Saturday night into
Sunday, with gales up to 35 knots being possible when the cold front
of the low moves through sometime around the Sunday/Sunday evening
time period (30 to 40% chance, highest over the open eastern lake
according to the NBM). In addition to the winds, some thunderstorms
could be seen along the cold front. Behind the cold front, expect
winds to slowly decrease from the west and northwest, eventually
becoming 20 knots or less again late Monday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...TAP

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion