Tincup, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

791
FXUS65 KGJT 261717
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1117 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for precipitation increase today through Monday, with
  Sunday likely having the most widespread coverage.
- Some storms may be capable of producing strong winds as well
  as heavy rainfall, which could impact the recent burn scars.
- With freezing levels around 11-13 kft this weekend there could
  be snowfall on the mountains with little if any impacts to
  the roadways.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 227 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
The coastal Cali low has been forced inland early this morning
by a transitory trough moving through the PacNW. This passing
trough will suppress the low into SoCal where it will stall
through early Sunday before being kicked out by a stronger
upstream trough. With the low hanging back to the West the
bulk of the moisture plume has stalled West of the 4 Corners as
well...with just some weak convection still lingering over San
Juan Co Utah early this morning. A stronger push of moisture
will not occur until the northern stream wave passes into the
Plains this evening and southerly flow around the low can reach
farther into the Intermountain West. QG forcing suggests weak
subsidence over much of the CWA today...again related to the
passing wave to the North. There will be convection fire today
and favor the southern mountains and valleys through the
evening. A weaker stream of moisture will also get pulled along
with passing wave and focus storms over the northern Utah
mountains...with much of the northern and eastern parts of the
CWA staying dry today. Temperatures will remain slightly above
seasonal normals as we head into the weekend. Moisture surges to
our southern border late tonight as the southerly flow becomes
less impeded. A better coverage of showers and storms should be
lifting across the 4 Corners through the morning and into the
central CWA through the afternoon...while dry in the far North.
Will have to watch how things trend out tomorrow with a good
push of clouds/moisture in the morning overall instability may
be tempered a bit. Some of the models are hinting at some
clearing in the later afternoon behind the morning push which
could make for some stronger more organized storms that would
bring along some threat of heavy rainfall rates/excess runoff
and possibly some hail.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 227 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Models continue in good agreement with the cutoff low over SoCal
Saturday starting to track northeastward becoming an open wave
Sunday as it tracks across eastern Utah and Western Colorado, but
discrepancies are creeping into the deterministic solutions on
timing of the system moving across the region with the European
model lagging the GFS by 18 hours and the Canadian in between. The
ensembles show better agreement more in line with the European
model. This is to be expected with cutoff lows as the models
struggle to predict their ejection out of SoCal, especially in the
transition season. There is also good agreement with a deep low
descending out of the gulf of Alaska to shift the synoptic pattern a
half wavelength east for the coming week with troughing over the
Western States and ridging over the Plains States extending up into
the Great Lakes by mid week. As this forecast is dependent on a
cutoff low ejection across the region, there is not a lot of
confidence in the model solutions, especially on timing, but the
most likely outcome is subtropical moisture wrapping around the low
to the southwest pushing clouds and showers with embedded scattered
thunderstorms up into the southern and central mountains Saturday.
Sunday looks to be the wettest day with widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain with some storms
moving off the terrain into the valleys. Of course, this will depend
on the timing of the open wave tracking overhead. If it is delayed,
then convection will stay mostly south of I-70 through the day with
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms moving north more Sunday
evening and overnight. We shall see; stay tuned. With the long wave
trough over the Western States through the coming week allowing
shortwaves to move through daily, the forecast is for unsettled
weather daily through mid week amounting to isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms mostly over the higher terrain with the
shortwaves passing to the north mostly along and north of I-70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Isolated showers are expected this afternoon. KTEX looks to be the
most likely airfield to be impacted and attm the only terminal to
carry a PROB30. Overall winds be light except near showers and
storms where gusts could excess 30 mph. Showers will mostly
dissipate overnight but push back toward the southern border by
sunrise with a higher coverage of precipitation expected on
tomorrow.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion