Tiltonsville, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

057
FXUS61 KPBZ 202114 AAA
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
514 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend.
A few showers and storms will continue south of Pittsburgh this
evening, but the better chance for more widespread
precipitation will arrive later on Monday and continue through
mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Scattered showers/storms this afternoon south of Pittsburgh
- Continued above normal temperatures
---------------------------------------------------------------
515 PM Update...
Updated POPs according to the latest radar trends and
mesoanalysis. Had reports of 1/2 inch hail with several of the
stronger storms this afternoon. A couple of storms could have
had potentially larger hail. Locally heavy rain was also
occuring, especially across far SW PA and Nrn WV, though dry
antecedent conditions were in place. ML CAPE has remained from
1000-1500 j/kg, but has shifted eastward into nrn WV. Current
indications are the convection should begin to diminish around
sunset as instability slowly wanes.
304 PM Update...
Increased POPs for the I 70 corridor, where convergence in the
vicinity of a surface boundary has resulted in showers and
thunderstorms developing. Radar indicated hail is possible in
some of these storms as they pulse up in strength. With dry air
aloft in place, some gusty wind is also possible. Added these
attributes to the grids as well. The latest mesoanalysis shows
1000-1500 j/kg ML CAPE in this region as well, with increased
moisture in the lower levels. DCAPE values are around 500-600
j/kg, especially across OH, where more mid level dry air is
observed.
Previous discussion...
Dry conditions are expected for most through today with surface
ridging extending south from an area of high pressure centered over
Ontario. Some mid to upper level clouds will stream through on
the periphery of a central CONUS mid-level trough with a light
easterly wind.
The exception to the dry conditions will be along and south of I-70
and perhaps the WV Panhandle where modest convergence along a
stalled frontal boundary and orographic ascent may be enough to
spark off a few showers/storms this afternoon. HREF prob of SBCAPE
>1000 J/kg sneaks up to around 60-70% with weak cloud layer mean
wind which points toward poor convective organization. With higher
PWAT values around 1.1-1.2" and modest CAPE, probability for >0.5"
of rain is actually not zero across northern West Virginia reaching
as high as 30-40%, though rainfall will be localized.
Could see a few showers linger overnight as weak shortwave energy
traverses the area and the stationary boundary wiggles around, but
coverage should generally wane after sunset. Overnight lows will
remain mild with elevated southeasterly flow and steady to gradually
increasing dew points overnight. Fog development should be limited
given the elevated wind, but sheltered areas or those that see some
rain today could have some after midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Additional showers/storms possible later Sunday in eastern
  Ohio
- Temperatures remain above normal
----------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday`s stalled boundary is progged to lift north with increasing
southerly surface flow and given an extra kick by the aforementioned
shortwave energy. This will allow for an increase in temperatures
and dew points with a summer-like feel with mid to upper 80s for
highs and low to mid 60s for dew points. Meanwhile, modest mid-level
height falls will occur on Sunday as shortwave energy rotates
through the Great Lakes regions. This is expected to initiate
initially disorganized scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the Ohio Valley in the early to mid afternoon hours that will slide
north and east into the evening and eventually into our eastern Ohio
counties closer to sunset. Coverage and organization should increase
a bit headed into the evening hours with better deep layer shear as
a broad south/southwest 20-25 knot low level jet develops beneath
increasing veering flow up to 700 mb. HREF prob for >1000 J/kg
SBCAPE and 20 knots of deep layer shear reaches 40-50% which could
point toward a low end wind threat, though latest CAMs suggest
arrival time around sunset in our eastern Ohio Counties. SPC day 2
outlook has encompassed those counties in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for
damaging wind, but a lower severe threat is a plausible solution
in our area if arrival time does prove to be after sunset.
Additional shortwave movement will support a continued chance of
showers overnight. Warm advection with elevated southerly flow
likely means lows won`t dip out out of the 60s across the area save
north of I-80.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Measurable rain expected within the long term period
- Near average temperatures expected late week
------------------------------------------------------------------
Confidence is high that a ridge axis over the Northeast will
dissipate as a trough ejects into the Great Lakes region. This
will result in an increase in southwest flow, leading to
elevated dew points and enhanced vertical wind shear and
increase our chances for showers and thunderstorms during this
time period. As for timing, precipitation chances will increase
across the Ohio River Valley beginning early Monday morning and
persisting into Tuesday.
Through early Tuesday morning, global ensemble guidance
indicates a probability exceeding 60% for at least a quarter
inch of precipitation for areas north of Pittsburgh and into
eastern Ohio. The probability of one inch of rain is considered
low over the 24 hour time period (less than 15%). As we progress
into the mid to late week time period, the potential for
additional rainfall and near- normal temperatures is noted due
to a lingering upper-level low centered to our southwest.
Overnight low temperatures may remain 5 degrees above average
with lingering low-level moisture and increase coverage.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are likely to continue through Saturday night as
surface ridging extends south from high pressure located across
Ontario. Weak surface convergence along a stalled frontal
boundary south of PIT, along with orographic ascent, should be
enough to yield a few showers/storms this afternoon with highest
probability across northern WV. Probability for impacts to MGW
are low and confidence has only warranted a PROB30 mention.
Elsewhere, scattered mid to upper level clouds will stream
overhead and wind remains light out of the east.
MVFR probability increases along and east of the ridges
overnight Saturday night with persistent easterly flow advecting
Atlantic moisture inland in the form of low stratus. DUJ/LBE see
40-60% probability of ceilings 

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion