Thompson, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

862
FXUS65 KGJT 262053
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
253 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Afternoon and evening convection continues each day through
  the weekend, possibly beyond. Sunday looks to be the most
  active day.
- Some storms may be capable of producing strong winds as well
  as heavy rainfall, which could impact the recent burn scars.
- Light snow can`t be ruled out for the highest elevations over
  the weekend though no impacts are expected to roadways.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
PWATs at the Grand Junction airport reached up to .66 inches
which is almost double of what we reported yesterday. This
increase in moisture is all thanks to the closed low spinning
over southern California that will remain stationary through
early Sunday morning. Flow around the low will allow moisture to
keep streaming into the area. Models continue to highlight the
best instability and highest CAPE levels over the San Juans and
Southeast Utah which is exactly where convection fired this
afternoon. The storms were short-lived and produced some
lightning and some brief heavy rain before collapsing. The CAMs
did a great job nailing this convection and if this trend holds,
tomorrow should be more active. Available moisture will remain
high while a shortwave will rotate around the area of low
pressure. The shortwave will provide the lift to allow the more
widespread convection to fire. This time the showers and storms
will reach the I-70 corridor with maybe some stray convection
reaching the northern valleys. Even so, I-70 south will be
favored. Some heavy rainers, gusty winds, and hail are possible
under and near the stronger cells.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Models have slowed down the arrival of the shortwave trough by about
12 hours the past fews runs, but despite that we are still expecting
scattered to widespread showers during day. This could result in
less forcing than previously anticipated. Another uncertainty is the
amount of cloud cover in the morning, which will dictate how much
instability can build for the afternoon convection. The more sun the
more storms. The strongest cells may be capable of small hail, gusty
winds and heavy rainfall. A few models do not bring the shortwave
overhead until Monday morning therefore showers could stick around
through out the day. Another shortwave trough could come in from the
west bringing the next chance for precipitation. As of the now the
timing is uncertain and overall it looks to be a quick wave. The
long term will be comprised of temperatures near normal to slightly
below normal due to the wave activity.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Isolated showers are expected this afternoon. KTEX looks to be the
most likely airfield to be impacted and attm the only terminal to
carry a PROB30. Overall winds be light except near showers and
storms where gusts could excess 30 mph. Showers will mostly
dissipate overnight but push back toward the southern border by
sunrise with a higher coverage of precipitation expected on
tomorrow.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion