Thomaston, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

589
FXUS61 KOKX 260012 CCA
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
812 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaching from the west passes through late tonight
into Friday morning. High pressure then builds in through the first
part of the weekend. Surface front passing through area Sunday
weakens with weak high pressure for early next week. Low
pressure passes southeast of the region mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Adjusted POPs with showers and thunderstorms. Decreased POPs for
Long Island and Southern Connecticut for early this evening. Made
thunderstorm probabilities just slight chance after 9PM. Line of
convection across interior NY State and Pennsylvania has become more
broken as it moves into western portions of the local forecast
region, with limited and sparse coverage of thunderstorms. The line
of showers is forecast to continue moving east across the rest of
the forecast region by mid to late this evening. Not expecting
overall much additional thunderstorm and thereby lightning
development. Adjusted cloud coverage up through this evening. No
other changes made to the forecast database.
A cold front approaches from the west and is expected to pass
through during the late night hours. Lift from a prefrontal trough
and shortwave will combine with modest CAPE to produce a chance of
thunderstorms along with showers into tonight. With a veering
profile and 30-40kt winds through the mid levels, speed and
directional shear will be there to support strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms. The threat is however mitigated by the
amount of instability and unfavorable low to mid level lapse
rates. The Storm Prediction Center has the area in a marginal
risk for severe weather with damaging wind gusts the primary
threat, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with veering
the low levels.
Anomalously high PWATs have been analyzed at around 2 inches
should remain at this level until the cold front passes through.
There is a chance of cell training as the steering flow is
fairly parallel to the approaching cold front and mid level
winds are oriented along the axis of strongest moisture
transport. Add in the convective potential, and a marginal risk
of flash flooding remains across the area. The speed of the
cells will however be a mitigating factor. See the hydrology
section below for potential impacts.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering chances of a shower for Friday morning over eastern LI,
otherwise dry weather with high pressure beginning to build in
behind the departing cold front. A shortwave creates some cyclonic
flow aloft in the afternoon with low level lapse rates steepening.
Although there will be enough moisture to trigger some cu growth, it
doesn`t look deep enough for a showers as mid levels will be on a
drying trend. Perhaps a sprinkle, but will leave this out of the
forecast at this time. The cold advection won`t be strong, so it
should still feel somewhat muggy with dewpoints slowly falling
through the 60s. Above normal high temperatures expected with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s. Continued dry for Friday night with low
temperatures also running above normal.
High pressure keeps the daytime hours dry on Saturday although
higher level clouds will likely filter the sunshine. Chances of
light rain or showers begin Saturday night as moisture pools along a
trough to our south and a wave of low pressure tries to form along
it.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For the rest of the weekend, chance of showers early Sunday, mainly
along the coast associated with a weak front moving across and an
upper level trough axis moving across. Lesser chances of showers
thereafter. Mainly dry conditions expected as weak high pressure
approaches. Forecast highs Sunday are in the low to upper 70s.
Weak high pressure and a weak pressure gradient reside over the
local area Monday into Monday night. Meanwhile areas of low
pressure, tropical waves, well south of the area will be developing
and moving more northwest. One of them will probably be Tropical
Cyclone Humberto. Chances for rain showers have lowered compared to
previous forecast but a little higher for Monday night. Mild
temperatures still expected for high temperatures Monday, upper 70s
to around 80.
Tuesday through Thursday, high pressure remains north of the region,
low pressure to the southeast of the region. There is model
uncertainty on the positions of the lows that far out in time, which
could be still tropical cyclones. Local region will have a NE flow
during this time with chances for showers for early Tuesday for
parts of the region, but otherwise mainly dry conditions. Winds
appear to have trended more gusty for Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Temperatures trending cooler than normal. Forecast highs in
the 70s Tuesday trend down into the 60s for Wednesday and
Thursday.
Please note, for specific track and strength observational and
forecast information regarding aforementioned tropical waves and
tropical cyclones, see the latest forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front moves through tonight into Friday.
Currently seeing a mix of MVFR/VFR, but thinking is most
locations will lower back down to MVFR/IFR for several hours
overnight tonight. A line of showers with embedded isolated
thunder is just starting to move through. Expected to be east of
NYC by 02z and then likely weaken to scattered light showers for
terminals farther east. Thereafter there will be improvement to
VFR by the early morning. Improvement may happen earlier than
forecast.
Gusty S/SW up to 20kt continue, but will likely end shortly
after 00z. Winds then gradually lighten as they become more W
overnight and NW around 5 kt by Friday late morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible through this evening with changing
categories.
Kept TSRA in the TAF as a PROB30 but confidence is low at this
time.
Improvement to VFR may occur earlier than forecast.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, chance of late day or evening showers.
Sunday and Monday: Chance of showers with MVFR conditions possible,
mainly at the NYC metro and Long Island terminals.
Tuesday: Pockets of MVFR possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front today will allow
ocean seas to build to around 5 feet tonight and a few gusts to
around 25 kt, mainly east of Fire Island Inlet. With the passage of
the cold front Friday morning seas will subside. SCA remains posted
east of Fire Island from 800 PM EDT tonight to 800 AM EDT Friday.
Winds and seas then remain below advisory levels Friday through
Saturday.
The long term forecast (Sunday through Tuesday night) has
conditions below SCA thresholds on all waters Sunday through
much of Monday night. Towards early Tuesday morning, ocean seas
are forecast to build to 5 ft, and higher thereafter for Tuesday
into Tuesday night, potentially up to 8 to 9 ft. There is
uncertainty this far out in time and wave heights could
fluctuate by a foot or two with subsequent forecasts. Regarding
wind gusts, those too are forecast to reach SCA levels Tuesday
night, mainly on the ocean, with otherwise, sub-SCA wind gusts
during the marine long term.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall with the rest of tonight`s showers should
total less than an inch most spots, but locally up to 1.5 to 2
inches will still be possible in the heaviest thunderstorms.
Impacts limited to mainly nuisance flooding in urban and poor
drainage areas. Cannot rule out flash flooding, but this would
be isolated in nature.
No hydrologic issues expected thereafter.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk remains for the NYC and Long Island
ocean beaches through this evening due to near 4 to 5 ft swell
and southerly winds near 10 to 15 kts.
Rip current risk for local ocean beaches on Friday is moderate.
This is due to residual onshore swell close to 4 ft and
developing more southerly flow of near 5 to 7 kts in the
afternoon.
Rip current risk for local ocean beaches on Saturday is low.
This is due to residual onshore swell close to 3 ft and light
onshore flow with more easterly component near 5 to 7 kts in the
afternoon.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion