Thomaston, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

816
FXUS61 KOKX 231349
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
949 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure will shift farther out into the Atlantic
today. A cold front approaching from the northwest late today
into tonight will stall nearby on Wednesday. A slow moving area
of low pressure and cold front will then impact the region from
Thursday through Sunday. High pressure will build in on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warmer and more humid for the first full day of astronomical autumn.
Offshore high pressure ridge begins to shift east and loosen its
control as a northern branch shortwave clips New England, sending
a surface cold front toward the area through the day.
Abundant Gulf moisture streams in with deep layer SW flow developing
and PW climbing above 1.5 inches. Given the warm, moist flow,
temperatures nudge upwards compared to previous days, with
afternoon highs 80-85 for urban NE NJ and the NYC metro area,
and upper 70s to near 80 elsewhere, 5-10 degrees above normal.
It will also be noticeably more humid with the moist air mass
in place, with dewpoints in the 60s.
A pre-frontal trough should help to instigate scattered
convection by afternoon over Upstate NY and PA, working east
into the evening. Soundings indicate modest instability
developing NW of NYC into the afternoon, and with the increased
dewpoints and around 20 kt of bulk unidirectional shear, could
support the development of a few thunderstorms. While severe
weather isn`t anticipated, can`t rule out an isolated storm
producing a few strong wind gusts. And even with such dry
antecedent conditions, any downpours could cause brief
nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. The activity
weakens as it moves into a more stable environment, but a few
downpours or rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out for coastal
areas into this evening. Overall, QPF is expected to be light,
perhaps a quarter inch or so NW of NYC, with less along the
coast. Entirely possible some locales, especially farther east
onto Long Island, remain dry through the period.
The front should stall nearby on Wednesday. A few showers could
linger overnight, especially across S CT. Patchy fog could
develop as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions remain unsettled mid to late week.
The cold front trying to sag south through the region stalls and
weakens Wednesday. This could allow for enough convergence for
lingering showers possible in the morning, but coverage looks
limited, with best chances to the north and east. Isolated
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out by the afternoon either.
Then, ahead of broad troughing over the Central US, an
associated frontal wave of low pressure tracks through the
Midwest into western Upstate NY, with a warm front extending
east toward the local region. As it lifts north, a more
widespread rainfall becomes likely Wednesday evening with the
resultant isentropic lift. The rain chances persist overnight
and through Thursday as an attendant cold front approaches from
the west. Could see additional thunderstorms ahead of the
boundary by late in the day Thursday, and could continue into
Thursday night as the front is slow to progress.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NBM was followed with no changes.
Key Points:
* A slow moving area of low pressure, and cold front, is
  expected to impact the region Friday through Sunday.
* Chances of showers persist through much of the period with a
  threat of thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Timing
  and coverage of rainfall remains uncertain.
* Drier conditions expected Sunday into Monday as high pressure
  builds back into the region.
* Daytime temperatures will be near to slightly above normal
  Friday through Monday, with highs in the 70s. Nighttime lows
  will be above normal Friday night and Saturday night, and
  return to more normal levels Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Offshore high pressure gives way to a pre-frontal trough late
this afternoon and tonight. A cold front from the northwest
moves into the region late tonight and becomes stationary across
the area.
Mainly VFR through late in the day, MVFR will be possible with
any showers and thunderstorms late in the day and into tonight.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms late afternoon into the
evening, mainly across the Lower Hudson Valley, northeastern NJ
and into the NYC metro. There is a chance that thunderstorms
will be mainly across the Lower Hudson Valley. Late tonight
showers will be east of the NYC terminals.
SW winds 10 kt or less into this evening should become generally
light and variable late tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Thunderstorms may be more isolated and northwest of the NYC
metro this evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday through Saturday: Periods of MVFR with showers
possible. Isold tstms possible at times.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA continues on the ocean waters given long period swells up to
5 ft associated with distant Hurricane Gabrielle. These elevated
seas should persist into at least Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front this afternoon
and evening could produce downpours with brief nuisance
flooding in urban and poor drainage locales, mainly across NE
NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and SW Connecticut. Antecedent
conditions have been notably dry though, so the risk for flash
flooding is low.
Additional rainfall is likely Wednesday night through Thursday
night, though this does not appear to warrant flood concerns
more than the possibility of localized minor issues.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip current development through
Wednesday at the ocean beaches as a long period 4-5 ft SE swell
continues from distant Hurricane Gabrielle.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...BG/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion