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Thawville Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

914
FXUS63 KLOT 122334
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 634 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few light showers/sprinkles can`t be ruled out late tonight/early Monday AM and again Tuesday night, otherwise mainly dry and near-seasonable conditions are expected through Thursday.

- The pattern turns more active heading into the upcoming weekend with increasing rain chances (30-50%).

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

It`s another pleasant fall day out there with temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s and generally light southeasterly breezes with increasing high cloud coverage drifting in across northern Illinois.

A strong upper level short wave is progged to lift across the northern Plains into Ontario tonight into Monday. Warm advection advection ahead of an associated surface cold front will lead to increased shower coverage over Iowa into the evening. Dry air in the low-to-mid levels will prevent any meaningful rainfall occurring into the local area as it drifts northeast. However, a few light showers/sprinkles can`t be ruled out late tonight into Monday morning, mainly west of the Chicago metro and I-55 in Illinois (20% chance) where enough mid-level saturation could allow some rain drops to reach the surface. Any spotty showers should end by the afternoon with forecast highs on Monday in the low to mid 70s areawide with very light winds.

Winds eventually flop northeasterly late Monday (albeit still very light) with the expectation that they increase on Tuesday through Wednesday. This will lead to generally cooler conditions midweek with highs in the 60s areawide on Wendesday. A few showers can`t be ruled out Tuesday night as a weak disturbance rounds the upper ridge, though confidence remains generally low and overall favors very light amounts if it does occur.

Dry weather then likely continues midweek as the upper level ridge builds northeast across the region paired with expanding surface high pressure. Ensemble guidance continues to support the return of a more active pattern for the end of next week with increasing shower chances heading into the weekend (30-50%) and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Something to keep an eye on over the coming days.

Petr

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

There are no significant aviation forecast concerns for the current TAF period.

A few sprinkles or light rain showers could be observed at RFD late tonight into tomorrow morning, though it is unlikely that this precipitation will result in notable visibility reductions. Couldn`t rule out that these sprinkles/showers make it to the Chicago metro terminals before decaying entirely, but confidence in precipitation occurring there is lower compared to RFD.

Regardless, a low-mid level VFR cloud deck will settle into the area tomorrow morning and largely persist through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds tomorrow will initially be light and out of the south before eventually turning northerly during the late afternoon or evening as a cold front drops through the area.

Ogorek

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None.

&&

$$

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NWS LOT Office Area Forecast Discussion

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