924 FXUS65 KCYS 171759 AFDCYSArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1159 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A slow moving storm system will keep unsettled weather over the area through Thursday morning, with chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures expected.
- Temperatures are expected to warm Thursday through the weekend with some minor chances for precipitation during this time.
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 335 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Radar currently shows slow moving light rain showers over portions of the forecast area early this morning. A sluggish upper-level low moving over the CWA is responsible for the precipitation overnight as well as the showers and storms expected during the day today. As the low gradually tracks eastward throughout the day, northerly winds will push wrap around moisture into the CWA. This moisture, combined with lift from the low will allow stratiform precipitation to persist throughout the day. Coverage of precipitation will increase as the day progresses and gradually taper off Thursday night. Little instability is present, mainly due to cooler temperatures associated with the northerly winds. Therefore, severe weather is not expected. However, with what little instability there is, a few embedded rumbles of thunder could be possible. As previously mentioned, northerly winds have ushered in much cooler air. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s, which is about 10 to 15 degrees below average. Precipitation and cloud cover will help ensure these cooler temperatures. Higher elevation areas in the mountains may also see a few snowflakes fly early this morning and Thursday night.
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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 335 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Towards the end of the work week, the stagnant upper-level low will slowly spin over the north central part of the country. By Thursday, this low will start pushing its way into South Dakota, leaving precipitation from this system lingering over the CWA. Instability across the area will continue to be weak, suggesting stratiform-like precipitation with perhaps a few embedded rumbles of thunder. With the upper-level low slowly beginning to move out, Thursday will also mark the start of a warm up as warmer 700 mb temperatures are ushered in. High temperatures on Thursday will be about 5 to 8 degrees warmer than Wednesday, with highs in the 60s and low 70s. Temperatures will continue warming into the day Friday, with mostly sunny skies helping facilitate highs in the 70s across most of the CWA.
Heading into the weekend, warming continues with high temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday making it into the 70s and 80s. A weak shortwave will make its way across the northern tier of the country over the weekend, potentially providing enough lift and a bit of moisture for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Any storms that do develop look to be mainly confined to the high terrain with minimal impacts. Headed into the beginning of the work week, weak ridging/zonal flow will lead to a mild and dry pattern. Mostly sunny skies and above average temperatures can be expected for Monday and Tuesday.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1155 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Precipitation will continue to move across the region through tonight, bringing a mixture of all flight categories across all terminals. Any rain/thunder that move across will primarily bring these reduced VIS or lowered CIGs, with breezy and erratic winds possible though not expected on the strong side. Winds will be overall breezy from a northerly component, with gusts around 20-30 knots expected. Tonight expect lingering clouds with occasional showers, with NE Panhandle sites potentially seeing a return of mist and fog bringing IFR to LIFR conditions through tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon, precipitation and clouds should be exiting the region.
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.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None.
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SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...SF AVIATION...CG
NWS CYS Office Area Forecast Discussion