Tell City, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

857
FXUS63 KLMK 221952
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
352 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.
   Main impacts are gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall.
*  Active and unsettled weather pattern sets up over the area for
   next week with daily chances for showers and storms.
*  Multi day rainfall amounts from today to Friday afternoon will
   range between 3 to 4 inches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
An upper level shortwave trough axis was moving through southern
Indiana this afternoon.  This feature will continue to move off to
the northeast into Ohio during the late afternoon and evening. Ahead
and just southeast of this feature, a band of synoptic scale lift
will push through northern/eastern KY into southern Ohio.  This lift
combined with some afternoon heating across central and eastern KY
will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms across much of the
region.
Currently, a couple of bands of storms have been gradually setting
up. The first band was located just west of the I-65 corridor, with
a second band located just east of I-65.  Both of these bands will
translate eastward this afternoon and evening.  The atmosphere is a
bit more unstable in areas east of I-65 where diffuse insolation has
occurred.  Further west, in the I-65 corridor and points west,
insolation has been reduced due to ongoing cloud cover and
precipitation.  Convection crossing the I-65 corridor should
continue to develop and maintain itself through the afternoon hours.
Corridor of higher mid-level winds will remain along and north of
the Ohio River and continue to translate northeastward into Ohio.
While low-level lapse rates are generally good for convection, mid-
level lapse rates remain rather anemic.  Where storms can intersect
bullseyes of instability, some stronger storms could develop.  In
general, any storm will be capable of producing heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and lightning.  Some marginally severe gusts will be
possible in stronger cores or if we see storms grow upscale into
smaller linear features and begin to blow out.  For the most part,
wind gusts of 25-45 mph will be possible in storms, through a few
gusts of 55-60 mph can`t be ruled out in spots.  Rainfall amounts of
quarter to a half inch will be possible, though some localized areas
of 1 inch will be possible in some spots.
For tonight, convection from the afternoon/evening period is
expected to move off to the east.  We`ll likely see a lull in
precipitation from the mid-late evening hours.  Overnight, the
aforementioned trough axis will continue to move off to the
northeast.  However, the nocturnal low-level jet is expected to
redevelop over the lower Ohio Valley overnight.  The CAMs continue
to vary on where additional convection would fire.  Some of them
keep the convection more confined to the KY/TN border, while others
suggest much of central/eastern KY could see additional
showers/storms overnight.  At this time, prefer to stick closer to
the multi-model consensus here and keep high chance PoPs going late
tonight across much of the region.  Model soundings suggest low-
level stability will increase through the night, so much of the
activity will remain elevated.  With weaker values of shear being
forecast and generally marginal lapse rates, the threat of severe
weather overnight remains quite low.  Low temperatures tonight will
be in the low-mid 60s.
For Tuesday, upper trough axis is forecast to continue to move off
to the east.  In the wake of that feature, upper level flow looks to
become more zonal with time.  A weak perturbation is forecast to
push toward the region by the late afternoon/evening.  We expect a
resurgence of convective development during the afternoon.  Initial
thinking is that convection may fire along a line from Bowling Green
to Lexington and points southeast.  20-25kts of deep layer shear
will be across the region, so I think some clusters of strong to
marginally severe storms will be possible with a threat of damaging
winds, mainly south of the WK/BG Parkways.  Highs Tuesday will be
in the low-mid 80s.
Tuesday night looks to remain unsettled the upper level perturbation
to the west deepens and we get surface cyclogenesis over southern
MO.  Stalled out frontal boundary to our south looks to lift
northward as a warm front and may become a focus for and east-west
band of convection to train across the region.
With respect to QPF, a solid 1-3 inches of rainfall looks likely
through Tuesday night.  HREF LPMMs continue to peg far southern KY
with locally higher amounts, which may be a strong signal for
potentially  higher amounts.  While a general 1-3 inches is
expected, some locally higher amounts of 4-5 inches in spots can`t
be ruled out across southern KY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Wednesday through Friday Night...
Complex upper level flow pattern is anticipated at the beginning of
the period.  Closed low over the high Plains will shift eastward and
interact with troughing already over the eastern US, resulting in a
rather deep trough axis developing.  Surface cyclogenesis over
southern MO is expected with the surface low moving northeast
through the Ohio Valley.  Ahead of this low and front showers and
storms are expected to be in progress across the region Wednesday
morning.  Additional rounds of showers and storms look likely into
the afternoon hours.  The risk of a few strong/severe storms is
there, though while we have stronger shear across our region, weaker
destabilization may be the fly in the ointment here to keep
convection from getting out of hand.  Nonetheless, if sufficient
clearing were to take place, multi-cellular clusters posing a
threat of wind damage looks possible.
By Thursday, upper trough axis will start to swing through the
region and this looks to bring the threat of widespread
showers/storms to an end across the region. This upper level trough
may end up closing off and developing a closed upper low over the
southeast US.  Faster flow aloft along the US/Canadian border may
become stronger and keep this low spinning over the SE US through
the weekend and into next week.  The overall forecast here continues
to trend drier for Friday-Sunday, though a deep easterly feed of
moisture off the Atlantic may spread clouds/showers back into the
region by Monday.
Highs during the period will be near seasonal normals with highs in
the upper 70s with lows in the upper 50s to around 60. Temperatures
may moderate a bit by Sat-Mon with highs returning to the lower 80s
and overnight lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
In terms of QPF, another 1-2" of rainfall will be possible on
Wednesday which may result in some hydro issues for some that see
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall during the period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Upper level shortwave trough axis will continue to lift northward
through southern IN and into OH this afternoon.   To the SE of this
wave, a band of showers and thunderstorms will move through the
region.  Best chances of storms will be at SDF/LEX with a chance at
KBWG/RGA.  Heavy rainfall will be possible on the front end of the
period over at KHNB.  Should see a lull in precip this evening,
before the LLJ kicks up overnight and starts to fire additional
convection towards dawn Tuesday.  Starting to see a fog signal at
HNB late tonight.  Will take them down to IFR conditions, but could
see vsbys go further down than that if they stay rain free.
Initially winds will be out of the southeast this afternoon, but
shift to the southwest this afternoon and this evening.  Locally
higher wind gusts will be possible in storms that affect the
terminals.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ

NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion