Talcottville New York Weather Forecast Discussion

243
FXUS61 KBGM 110541
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
141 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions are expected tonight, but clouds will increase
and the chance for rain showers returns this weekend into and
early next week. Seasonable temperatures will be in place
through Sunday before a brief cool down Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure over the area will slide to the east tonight and
clears skies in place through the rest of the afternoon will
give way to an increase in clouds. With the flow out of the
south-southeast, it won`t be nearly as cold tonight with lows in
the upper 30s to the mid 40s. There still can be a few areas of
frost overnight in portions of N. Oneida County and the
Catskills.
A stacked area of low pressure moving across the Great Lakes
will push into western NY tomorrow. This system will draw up
moisture from the south from a developing coastal low well off
to our south. This will lead to some spotty showers for the
start of the weekend, especially during the afternoon. With
plenty of cold air aloft with the stacked low, some small hail
with any shower cannot be ruled out over western parts of the
CWA close to the center of the low. High temperatures tomorrow
will primarily be in the low to mid 60s, so a seasonably warm
day. Shower chances increase Saturday night as the low over the
NY continues to drift south and east and the coastal system
continues to come together with more moisture streaming north.
Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The coastal low will slowly move from the Carolinas up the mid-
Atlantic coast Sunday into Sunday night and will absorb the low
over NY/PA. Scattered showers are expected to persist during
this time, however, as the energy from the weakening low to the
north transfers to the coastal system, there can be a lull in
the activity during the daytime on Sunday. With a tightening
pressure gradient developing, winds are expected to increase,
especially over the Poconos and southern Catskills Sunday into
Sunday night.
Sunday night into Monday, there is some uncertainty as to how
far north and how close to the coast the coastal storm will be
and thus how far north and west the main rain shield spreads
into our area during this time. Areas generally east of I-81
have the greatest chance of steady rainfall late Sunday through
Monday before the low begins to slowly pull away to the east.
With a prolonged period of rain chances through Monday, there
is the potential for some beneficial rainfall totals during this
time with a general 0.50-1.00 inch over the CWA. Northeast PA,
especially the Poconos, up through the Catskills have the
potential for up to 2.00 inches of rain, but with this being a
long-duration event, the potential for any flooding issues is
low. Highs Sunday remain seasonable in the 60s, then it will
cool down on Monday into the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The aforementioned coastal storm will slowly drift out to sea
on Tuesday as a flattening ridge moves in from the west. With
some uncertainty on the speed of the low`s departure, a low
chance of showers will linger during the day, especially east of
I-81. Beyond Tuesday, drier air does look to make a return
midweek before another wave moves in with a chance of showers
Friday into the weekend. Temperatures are expected to trend
cooler Tuesday through Thursday going from the low and mid 60s
to the lower and mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Conditions will be mainly VFR for the majority of this TAF
period. A weak low pressure system will dip south and bring rain
to areas along and west of I-81 after 21z today. With this
system ceilings and visibilities will be slightly reduced. MVFR
to Fuel Alt ceilings are expected at AVP, BGM, ELM, and ITH. SYR
and RME are too far east and north but a few spotty showers
cannot be ruled out at SYR after 00z Sunday.
South to southwest winds will be slightly breezy with sustained
speeds of 5 to 10 kts with gusts around 15 kt. Winds then become
more westerly and calmer beginning this evening.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday...On and off rounds of rain with
associated restrictions.
Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. A few rain showers
cannot be ruled out, especially at the Central NY terminals.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BTL

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion