Tahlequah, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

251
FXUS64 KTSA 171819
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
119 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Afternoon pop-up showers and storms are expected again today,
   focused mainly over NW AR. These storms will yield an isolated
   severe wind/hail potential.
- Rain and storm chances/coverage ramp up into Thursday across E
   OK and NW AR with the approach of an upper trough and
   concomitant front, with the focus shifting east over western AR
   on Friday. There will be some uptick in severe weather
   potential, as well as heavy rainfall potential.
- After an expected lull in the active weather to start the
   weekend, rain/storm chances increase to finish the weekend as a
   wave in the NW flow aloft slides across the region.
- While the details still remain fairly uncertain, a pattern
   change is expected across the CONUS next week which should push
   a stronger front into the area early next week. Higher
   rain/storm chances will accompany the front, with a trend
   toward quieter/drier weather later in the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Just like previous days, some afternoon pop-up showers and storms
are expected again today, focused over the Ozarks. Storms over the
past couple of days have dropped hail and produced some wind
damage, very localized of course. The airmass is basically the
same /decent mid level lapse rates but weak shear/, so this
potential will exist until the sun goes down this evening.
A blocking pattern currently exists over the CONUS, featuring an
upper low centered over eastern WY/western NE/western SD. A
lobe/wave is rotating around the western side of the system
currently, and is expected to then slide east across the central
CONUS on Thursday. We`ll see increasing shower and storm coverage
by Thursday afternoon as shown by several CAMs, especially to the
east of what will be increasing mid and high cloud and showers
left over from what occurs to our west this afternoon and tonight.
The plan is to increase PoPs above model blend (NBM) forecast for
Thursday afternoon. Increasing flow at 500 mb with the upper
trough will aid in some convective organization and thus an
increase in severe risk.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Deterministic models and most ensemble cluster solutions suggest
an uptick in rain/storm coverage Thursday night after a brief lull
during the evening as the upper trough moves across. Locally heavy
rainfall will be the main threat. The focus for rain/storms
shifts east over into AR for Friday. After what looks like a
relative lull in the activity in the wake of this wave to start
the weekend, models have a wave sliding across the region in the
NW flow aloft over the weekend, again increasing rain/storm
chances.
A pattern change is advertised by the models going into next week,
but the details remain highly uncertain. A strong cross-Pacific
jet will punch into northwest NOAM to start the week, but the
models are trending toward taking most of this energy up into
Canada, while developing split-flow blocking to the south over the
CONUS. An upper low developing on the nose of the weaker southern
stream jet energy is expected to evolve somewhere over the central
CONUS next week. The GFS has been consistent suggesting this will
all occur north of our area, while the EC suggests the low will
dive south over or near the area. This has big implications on
what will do here. There is no clear winner in ensemble cluster
data, suggesting higher than normal uncertainty. Thus, this
forecast will stick with the model blend, showing higher
rain/storm chances with a front early in the week, trending
quieter/drier as the week progresses. While temps will trend
cooler than they have been of late, expect closer to average temps
rather than a significant fall cool down.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Isolated to scattered convection is once again forecast across much
of the CWA this afternoon into early evening, with northwest
Arkansas having the greater potential. Thus, will continue with
Prob30 groups for KXNA,KROG,KFYV,and KFSM. Within the convection,
locally strong wind gusts, a period of heavy rain and MVFR
conditions are possible. Otherwise, scattered to broken mid and high
clouds are forecast for the CWA into this evening. Overnight
tonight, increasing cloud cover is expected from west to east ahead
of a cold front approaching from the west. Additional shower/storm
chances return late tonight and Thursday morning for northeast
Oklahoma, and will run with additional Prob30 groups for KBVO, KTUL,
and KRVS for timing of greater potential. Winds through the period
start out generally westerly and become more variable tonight into
Thursday. Outside of convection and a window for MVFR visibility
at KFYV tonight, VFR conditions are forecast through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  66  85 /  20  50  60  30
FSM   70  92  69  87 /  20  30  50  50
MLC   67  92  66  86 /   0  50  60  50
BVO   63  87  61  84 /  30  50  60  20
FYV   63  88  63  83 /  20  50  60  50
BYV   66  88  64  82 /  20  60  60  60
MKO   68  91  65  84 /  10  50  60  40
MIO   66  89  64  82 /  30  50  70  40
F10   67  91  64  85 /  10  50  60  40
HHW   68  93  66  87 /   0  30  50  40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion