Sumatra, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

900
FXUS62 KTAE 241020
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
620 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Airmass moistening continues under maritime-influenced southerly
flow on the left periphery of surface high pressure ahead of an
approaching cold front. This morning starts off unseasonably
warm/muggy with patchy fog possible. Temperatures then soar into the
low-mid 90s by the afternoon amidst a healthy cumulus field via
thermal lift. Expect a rather robust seabreeze later today, which
should act as a forcing mechanism for isolated convection along/SE
of the I-10 corridor on the FL Big Bend side where current satellite-
derived Precipitable Water ranges from 1.5-1.8 inches. Convection
appears to linger across parts of the Suwannee Valley this evening
near I-75. For tonight, lows merely drop to the low 70s in addition
to good chances for patchy fog developing over much of the Tri-State
area near sunrise. Isolated showers may approach the coast early
Thursday-morning on the heels of moist pre-frontal southwesterly
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Rain, rain will finally be on the way thanks to an approaching
frontal system after a bone-dry September to date! Showers with
isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing over parts of SE AL and the FL
Panhandle Thursday morning before spreading eastward through the
afternoon. Environmental conditions appear favorable for semi-
organized convective clusters capable of gusty to perhaps isolated
damaging winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours. A
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is highlighted
across SE AL and most of the FL Panhandle & SW GA in the Day 2 SPC
Outlook, beginning Thursday morning. High temperatures range from
the upper 80s to low 90s.
Very high rain chances are forecast areawide on Friday as the front
passes through the region. Expect a widespread soaking rain that
will be much welcomed and beneficial to drought-stricken locations.
It is unlikely that flooding would materialize as it would take
quite a bit of precipitation. However, localized runoff issues are
possible in urban, low-lying, or poor-drainage areas. The threat for
strong thunderstorms will also continue. High temperatures dip into
the 80s via rain-cooled air and thick cloud cover. Low temperatures
are forecast to be mostly in the low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Frontal passage occurs some time this weekend with rain chances
dwindling from west to east. However, it remains unclear how dry we
get or for how long beyond Sunday thanks to the low predictability
on the evolution of a meandering cutoff low across the SE US. It is
possible that our sensible weather remains unsettled next week if
cyclonic flow aloft lingers. High temperatures are forecast to
mainly be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Brief, patchy fog early this morning will dissipate after sunrise
with VFR expected afterwards at all terminals through most of the
period. By the end of the period on Thursday morning, some MVR
ceilings may encroach upon DHN ahead of the next system to affect
the region.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A 3Z ASCAT pass showed variable winds below 10 kts.
CWF Synopsis: Surface high pressure off the Eastern Seaboard fosters
southerly winds today with a local shift to southwesterly from the
afternoon seabreeze across the immediate nearshore waters. Winds
turn out of the southwest on Thursday ahead of an approaching the
front. Chances for showers and thunderstorms notably increase into
the weekend. Winds shift out of the north/northwest on Saturday
following frontal passage.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A pre-frontal airmass will continue to gradually moisten via
southerly winds until the front`s arrival around late Thursday. For
today, expect very warm and mostly dry conditions outside of
isolated seabreeze convection along/SE of the I-10 corridor
generally east of the Apalachicola River. By Thursday, rain chances
jump considerably in addition to the potential for strong
thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and frequent lightning.
Widespread wetting rains appear likely during frontal passage,
especially on Friday. Showers linger in the forecast on Saturday,
but will be on a diminishing trend from west to east.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Beneficial rainfall is poised to arrive Thursday into Saturday from
a cold front. At a minimum, most folks should expect at least a
quarter of an inch during that time frame (particularly Friday) with
locally higher amounts beneath the stronger thunderstorms and/or
training convection. Given the ongoing (flash) drought conditions
areawide, flooding concerns are low. Current Flash Flood Guidance
suggests 4-6 inches of rain would need to fall within 6 hrs. We are
not expecting our drought to bust from this activity, but it`s a
start!
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  71  92  72 /  20   0  40  40
Panama City   89  75  88  73 /  10  10  40  70
Dothan        94  71  89  69 /   0  10  70  70
Albany        96  71  93  70 /   0   0  60  50
Valdosta      94  71  93  71 /  10  10  40  20
Cross City    93  72  92  71 /  20  10  30  20
Apalachicola  86  74  86  74 /  10  10  20  50
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion