Stockholm, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

139
FXUS64 KBRO 280534 AAA
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
* Mainly rain-free conditions with lower humidity levels,
  relative to prior weeks, and seasonable temperatures are
  expected to persist through next week.
* Minor (Level 1 of 4) Heat Risk is expected to persist through
  next week.
* Isolated chance/coverage for a shower on Monday; better chances
  increase next weekend into the following week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Autumn is officially here and it certainly feels like it with lower
humidity levels driven by east-northeasterly winds. This
refreshing and welcomed airmass of seasonable temperatures and
lower humidity levels is in fact a modified Canadian airmass, tied
to a strong and large ~1020 mb sfc high pressure system hundreds
of miles away over the Midwest/Great Lakes Region. It`s this high
pressure system that`s kept and will continue to keep the cool
front well to our south. Over the next week, mostly rain-free
weather with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity levels
relative to prior weeks will continue as forecast models and
ensembles continue to show the current high pressure system in
place and another one later in the week being key fixtures to our
weather pattern.
There is a low grade chance (15-30%) for an isolated or rogue sea
breeze shower/thundershower developing or moving inland on
Monday. The greatest chances for any showers/thundershowers will
be over the Gulf Waters, where we have 30-40% chances. As touched
on earlier, a second and stronger Canadian high pressure system
will traverse and stall over the Northeast U.S. for much of next
week. This feature will be large enough to influence our weather
through at least Thursday with continued rain-free weather with
seasonable temperatures and still lower humidity levels compared
to prior weeks with dewpoints ranging between the 50s across Brush
Country to the upper 60s/low 70s near the coast.
Friday through next Sunday, the aforementioned sfc high over the
Eastern U.S. will steadily lose its influence over Deep South Texas.
Additionally, a weak shortwave trough is expected to develop and
could lead to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Confidence for rainfall increases as time progresses due to what was
previously mentioned. That said, expect for mainly dry weather this
upcoming week with the pattern possible becoming more active/wet
next weekend into the following week.
Temperatures as mentioned will be near normal levels through the
forecast period or through next Sunday. Daytime high temperatures
are progged to be in the low to mid 90s for the most part. Wednesday
and Thursday looks to be the warmest days of the week. Overnight
lows are expected to range between the mid 60s over the Northern
Ranchlands to the low-mid 70s elsewhere.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Mostly clear skies with light and variable winds prevail across
Deep South Texas early this morning. Light winds overnight will
increase and become northeast to east later this morning into the
afternoon. VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Marine conditions are expected to remain favorable through next week
with light to moderate east-northeasterly winds and low to moderate
seas with wave heights between 1-3 feet.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             89  74  89  74 /  20  10  40  20
HARLINGEN               91  69  90  69 /   0  10  30  10
MCALLEN                 94  73  94  72 /   0   0  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         94  68  94  69 /   0   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      86  79  86  79 /  20  20  30  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  74  88  74 /  10  20  30  20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...63-KC

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion