Stearns, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

697
FXUS63 KJKL 051750 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
150 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to impact
  the area mainly this evening into the overnight.
- A few of the storms this evening into the early overnight may be
  strong to severe; damaging wind will be the primary threat, but
  large hail and a brief spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out.
- Widespread rainfall totals between 1.0 to 1.75 inches are
  possible through late Saturday night, but locally higher totals
  are possible wherever stronger convection occurs.
- Below normal temperatures and drier weather will return this
  weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 115 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
and a tweaking of the PoPs per the current CAMs guidance. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 1055 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
14Z sfc analysis shows low pressure and a cold front inching
closer to the area from the northwest. Currently, temperatures
are running in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Meanwhile, amid southwest
winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper
60s. There also remains a couple of showers rolling east along
the Virginia border but the rest the area is dry. Have updated
the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids and to fine tune the near term PoPs. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 704 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
Just a quick update to account for the ongoing showers along the
KY-80/Hal Rogers Parkway corridor.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 510 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
The latest surface analysis shows a weak stationary boundary
oriented northeast to southwest across the CWA. This boundary is
tied to an occluding surface low centered over the southern Hudson
Bay region. Another surface low and its associated cold front are
centered over Wisconsin and are tracking southeast toward the
Commonwealth. Locally, it is a mostly quiet night, though there are
areas of locally dense river valley fog and showers developing along
the stationary boundary.
Throughout the rest of the day, as the two systems Fujiwhara around
and upper-level closed circulation, the first front will lift out of
the region later this morning, leading to weak surface high
pressure. However, the second system will continue to track
southeastward toward the Commonwealth, placing the CWA in the warm
sector ahead of the second front in as many days. While in the warm
sector, southwesterly flow will allow temperatures to soar into the
upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. As temperatures soar, the
stage is being set for potential severe thunderstorms later this
evening into the overnight. The southwesterly flow will usher in
more moisture, causing Tds to climb into the mid to upper 60s and
even into the low 70s ahead of a strong cold front. This increase in
moisture will cause instability values to increase significantly,
which is showing up in forecast soundings as SBCAPE and MUCAPE
values both exceed 2,200 J/kg later this afternoon. Along with this
abundance of moisture, bulk shear values will range from 40 to 50
knots ahead of the front. A third factor is that a good cap will be
in place this afternoon, allowing these ingredients to strengthen
for a longer period. Once that cap erodes, the potential for strong
to severe storms will be realized. The final factor that will play a
major role in this setup is the emergence of a LLJ at the time when
discrete supercells are forecast to develop. This combination will
be where the greatest hail and tornado threat will exist, but once
storms congeal and form a line, the damaging wind threat will
materialize and persist through the rest of the evening into the
overnight. Given this decent, yet conditional, threat, the SPC has
placed the area in a Day 2 Slight Risk, with a 15% wind risk, a 2%
tornado risk, and a 5% large hail risk. Coupled with the severe
weather threat, forecast precipitable water amounts of 1.70 to 1.90
inches, which is well above climatology, will also arrive via
southwesterly flow. These numbers, along with the expected stronger
storms, will combine to create heavy rain and possible instances of
hydrological issues across the entire CWA. Expected rainfall with
this frontal passage is between 0.75 and 1.25 inches, with locally
higher amounts possible.
Showers and thunderstorms will persist into Saturday as cold frontal
passage is forecast to be slow. However, by Saturday afternoon,
showers and storms will taper off from northwest to southeast, and
surface high pressure will build into the area for the remainder of
the forecast period. Temperatures on Saturday are expected to be 15
to 20 degrees colder due to upper-level west-to-northwesterly flow
and post-frontal CAA.
The period will be highlighted by the passage of a strong cold front
that will bring strong to severe storms this evening and tonight.
Surface high pressure will slowly build back into the region behind
the exiting front on Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will climb
into the mid to upper 80s and low 90s today but will be in the upper
60s to low 70s for Saturday. Tonight and Friday night will remain
mild, but cooler temperatures are forecast for Saturday night.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 510 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
Behind Saturdays cold front, a surface high-pressure system will
build into the region and will remain largely in place throughout
the long-term forecast period. Dry weather will accompany this
surface high pressure, and temperature swings will be the major
highlight in the forecast. Post-frontal CAA will continue to keep
cooler temperatures in the forecast through early next week, but as
flow begins to shift to a west-southwesterly direction, temperatures
will begin to climb back into more seasonal averages for the
remainder of the forecast period.
The period will be marked by the arrival of a surface high-pressure
system. Dry weather is to be expected. Temperatures will be slightly
below normal, with highs in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows
in the upper 40s to mid-50s, before beginning to warm for the start
of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
TAFs are VFR at issuance though expected to deteriorate into the
evening as a cold front brings increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances starting late this afternoon. This storm threat will
persist through the TAF window for most sites - likely sparing SYM
during the day on Saturday. Terminals will fall into a combination
of IFR to MVFR as the convection moves through. Winds will be
generally from the southwest at 5 to 10 kts with gusts up to 20
kts possible through the evening then settles somewhat tonight and
into Saturday. Additionally, the convection will bring gusty and
erratic winds - likely strongest this evening.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion