Stark, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

749
FXUS61 KRLX 262348
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
748 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance approaches from the southwest
tonight, bringing a better chance for showers late tonight and
Saturday south/east.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...
Low stratus has broken up across the area this afternoon into
SCT stratocu, resulting in a decent amount of sunshine. Mainly
dry weather persist today as high pressure traverses north of
the region, with just a few isolated (20%) showers possible
across southwest VA northeast across the mountains. Highs will
range from the mid 70s to 80 across the lowlands, with mid 60s
to low 70s in the mountains.
An upper level disturbance currently located across southern TN
pivots northeast towards the area overnight, bringing an
increased chance for showers and perhaps a few ISOLD
thunderstorms, primarily south and east of line from Charleston
to Clarksburg, later tonight through Saturday. This results in
increasing cloud cover overnight, with the potential for some
fog, particularly across the northwestern CWA given less cloud
cover. Rainfall through Saturday should generally be 0.50-0.75"
or less and be of the beneficial variety, although a highly
isolated hydro issue in/near the mountains cannot entirely be
ruled out. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s
to low 60s. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 70s to low 80s
across the lowlands, with 60s in the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...
Mainly dry conditions will return to the area for the end of the
weekend and start of the new work week as the aforementioned
upper disturbance shifts northeast and mid level ridging
attempts to build across the region. Isolated showers will
remain possible Saturday night into Sunday in/near the higher
terrain, and then once again across the higher terrain late
Monday into Monday night given the potential for tropical
moisture moving in from the south. Otherwise, dry conditions
are progged further northwest amid a decent amount of sunshine
both days. High temperatures Sunday/Monday look to be slightly
above normal across the lowlands, with mid 70s to low 80s
progged. Seasonable temperatures are expected further south/east
given increased cloud cover. Overnight lows will run ~ 5
degrees above normal, with at least patchy or worse fog possible
each morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...
A strengthening tropical system is currently progged to approach
the southeast CONUS Monday evening into Tuesday night, with
guidance then differing on if, or how far the system moves
inland. This feature will be the main weather-maker for the
extended period across our forecast area, thus resulting in two
possible solutions, with the first being it remains offshore or
far enough south/east that our area remains dry under high
pressure. On the contrary, if it moves far enough inland as
depicted by the GFS, the chance for at least SCT showers returns
later Tuesday and Wednesday, with at least the potential for
some heavy rain depending on track. The NBM PoPs of 20-40% on
Tuesday/Wednesday reflect the significant amount of uncertainty
in guidance this far out, but at least highlight the potential.
Following this, dry weather returns on Thursday as high pressure
builds more firmly into the region. Temperatures throughout the
period will be near to slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 745 PM Friday...
Flight conditions should start to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR overnight
due to a combination of fog and lowering ceilings, as well as
some showers mainly along and near the mountains. Showers
become more widespread on Saturday, though precipitation
chances remain highest for the eastern terminals and then lessen
to the west. Although conditions will gradually improve during
the day, some MVFR may persist along the mountains for the bulk
of the TAF period.
North to northeast winds will be calm to light overnight, then
light through Saturday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/extent of fog, rain, and stratus
may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                                                                 SAT
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR is possible at night with low stratus and/or fog through
Monday morning.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GW/20
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...20

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion