Stanton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

479
FXUS64 KMAF 171826
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
126 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 122 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Low to medium (10-40%) shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday
  through Saturday, mainly in the higher terrain and northern
  Permian Basin. At the moment, the highest chances of rain are
  forecast to be Thursday afternoon before chances (10-30%)
  decrease again late week and into the weekend.
- Highs remain in the upper 80s and low 90s, rising into the low-
  to- mid 90s for most by the end of the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Current water vapor imagery depicts a broad trough ejecting from the
Rockies into the northern and central Plains. Unfortunately, this
system still looks to remain too far north of West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico to bring higher rain chances to the region.
Furthermore, atmospheric moisture has continued to decrease, with
MAF`s 12Z sounding showing a PWAT of around 0.86 inches (just under
the median for this time of year). In any case, for today upslope
flow is expected to result in the development of isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Davis Mountains into
Eddy County (10-25% chances). The system to our north will try to
send a weak front down by Thursday morning. This front will stall
and retreat back north before it makes it into our area. Thursday
evening the front looks to make another push towards the area,
though once again it will begin to stall and weaken just as it nears
our northern counties. Thus, it is expected to have little effect on
our weather, with the exception of yielding some low (10-25%) rain
chances in Southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin
Thursday afternoon and evening. Additional shower and thunderstorm
activity will be possible in the higher terrain of Southeast New
Mexico and West Texas tomorrow afternoon as well (10-20%).
Temperatures remain steady through the Short Term. Highs in the
upper 80s and low 90s can once again be expected areawide. Lows will
bottom out in the 60s (50s in the higher terrain). However, a
warming trend is in store for the Long Term period...
Sprang
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
The extended still looks hot as summer refuses to give way to
another season (Fall begins Monday). Mid level ridging over N.
Mexico will remain persistent into next week helping to keep
temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal each day. The heat will
peak Sunday/Monday with highs in the mid to upper 90s for most.
Might be a good time to have that last pool party! Precipitation
chances remain low (20-30%) through the weekend as weak
northwesterly flow could bring a disturbance or two in.
Forecast confidence decreases by the middle of next week as models
struggle with the upper pattern. There looks to a strengthening
trough over the Central Plains but how strong and movement of this
feature is still up in the air. This trough could deliver a decent
cooldown and even some rain so will continue to keep an eye on it.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions expected at all terminals. Southerly/southeasterly
winds persist through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  90  65  90 /   0  10  20  10
Carlsbad                 64  89  64  89 /  10  20  20  10
Dryden                   67  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            65  90  67  90 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           62  80  62  80 /  10  20  20  10
Hobbs                    62  86  62  87 /   0  10  20  10
Marfa                    56  83  58  83 /   0  10   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     66  90  66  90 /   0  10  20  10
Odessa                   65  88  66  88 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                     64  90  66  90 /   0  10  10  10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...13

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion