Spring Valley, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

255
FXUS65 KFGZ 291117
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
417 AM MST Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Outside of slight chances for light showers across the
White Mountains and portions of the Kaibab Plateau, mostly dry
conditions are anticipated through the forecast period. Along with
drier weather, daytime highs will increase each afternoon and
winds will become breezes out of the southwest by the end of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Although all the showers/thunderstorms have ended
across the state, the upper level low still remains positioned
near the NE portion of Arizona. This system will continue to pull
northward throughout the day, leaving behind warmer temperatures
and drier conditions. We cannot completely rule out a stray
shower or two towards the White Mountains this afternoon, but
elsewhere should remain dry for a change.
By Tuesday, a broad trough will take over much of the West Coast,
but should only bring slightly elevated southwest winds and maybe
a light showers towards the Kaibab Plateau. This trough will pull
northward by the middle of the week, putting Arizona back into a
zonal flow. This zonal flow doesn`t look to last long, due to high
pressure quickly building over the Southwest. As a result,
temperatures will climb through the week and mostly dry conditions
will remain.
On Friday, model guidance suggests a low pressure system sliding
through the Great Basin region and tightening pressure gradients
across Arizona. This should bring gusty southwest winds on Friday,
but little to no confidence of any moisture reaching the state at
this time.
Overall, a much drier and warmer pattern will set up for the week!
&&
.AVIATION...Monday 29/12Z through Tuesday 30/12Z...Mostly VFR
conditions forecast through the period, but brief reduced ceilings
and visibilities due to BR/FU possible near KPRC and KFLG. Look
for southwest winds 5-15 kts this afternoon, becoming light and
variable overnight.
OUTLOOK...Tuesday 30/12Z through Thursday 02/12Z...VFR conditions
forecast through the period. Expect south through southwest winds
5-15 kts, with afternoon gusts near 20 kts possible. Light and
variable winds forecast to return during the overnight periods.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Drier and warmer weather
expected through much of the week. Minimum RH values will range from
30-60% today, and drop to 20-50% on Tuesday. Look for generally
light southerly winds today less than 10 mph, becoming south-
southwest 5-15 mph on Tuesday.
Wednesday through Friday...Above normal temperatures forecast
through the end of the week, with much drier conditions. Minimum RH
values will be between 15-30% each afternoon, and overnight
recoveries mostly above 60%. Look for south through southwest winds
5-15 mph Wednesday and Thursday, becoming west-southwest at 10-20
mph on Friday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion