South Bend, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

262
FXUS63 KIWX 151017
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
617 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued very warm through Friday with the highs in the mid
  to upper 80s.
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday night into
  Saturday.
- Little impactful rainfall will allow drought conditions to
  worsen.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
A very strong and pronounced upper level ridge will help keep
very warm temperatures over the entire area for this time of the
year. To the west of this system, a large upstream cutoff low
will persist over the High Plains into the Central Plains. This
low will help the upper level ridge to stay established across
the mid Mississippi Valley. Climatological 500 mb height
departures are remarkable, with up to +400 meters from the Upper
Great Lakes region to James Bay Canada (on the south end of
Hudson Bay)
Given the antecedently dry conditions and very warm temperatures
associated with the upper level ridge, afternoon surface high
temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s. Even
warmer temperatures locally are likely to reach or top 90
degrees, especially in urban areas.
As for precipitation, some energy from the approaching upper low
should reach the area by late this week. Chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected Saturday into early next
week. Overall rainfall should not be significant and should do
little to ease the ongoing drought.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Amid stagnant, tranquil weather, the existing TAFs are on track
and carry on unchanged.
Fog from a marine-modified airmass is seeping through northwest
Ohio but, at this hour, KFWA has a 3 degree dew point
depression and impending sunrise ought to disturb the fog`s
southwestward progress. Fair weather cumulus will be hard to
come by today as well given an absence of mid- level moisture.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Brown

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion