South Argyle, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

961
FXUS61 KALY 252340
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
740 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.UPDATE...
As of 705 PM EDT, one last surge of rain along the main cold
front, now located across the Hudson Valley, will continue to
push eastward over the next couple of hours with precipitation
gradually ending in its wake. Brief, heavy downpours will occur
with this activity and a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out
either. Impressive rainfall totals have occurred over the past
couple of days with the zone of heaviest rainfall occurring
across the eastern Catskills northeastward through the Capital
District and into Saratoga and Washington counties. Within this
region, rainfall amounts have ranged from 2.50 to 4.50 inches
with some locally higher amounts. Outside of this zone, amounts
between 0.50 and 2.00 inches were common. Behind the front,
partial clearing will likely result in some fog formation
overnight. A few light showers or sprinkles could occur across
the Adirondacks overnight as well.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain associated with a low pressure system will taper off from
west to east this evening. Behind this storm system, clearing
skies and mainly drier weather will return for Friday with
comfortable temperatures, although a stray shower can`t be ruled
out over the Adirondacks. It will stay mild through the
weekend, but some cooler weather will arrive during next week,
with continued dry conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:
- Widespread soaking rainfall continues through this evening,
  with a 50-95% chance for greater than 1 inch of rain across
  the region.
- There is a Marginal Risk(Level 1 of 5) for severe
  thunderstorms from the Capital District and Berkshires
  southward.
Discussion:
As of 200 PM EDT...An area of low pressure is situated over the
Finger Lakes and central New York. A cold front extends south
across central PA, while a warm front is draped eastward from
the low pressure area across the Adirondacks and into central
New England. Visible satellite imagery continue to show
widespread cloud cover over the region, which has prevented much
instability from being available. While no surface based
instability is in place, SPC mesoanalysis does show around 500
J/kg of MUCAPE across far southern areas. With the system
overhead, there is decent shear in place, with 0-6 km bulk shear
around 40 kts. However, lapse rates are fairly poor across the
region thanks to the widespread cloud cover, rainfall and moist
temp profile aloft. PWAT values are well above normal for late
September, with values in the 1.7 to 1.9 range, so the threat
for heavy downpours is elevated for today.
Radar imagery shows a large area of steady rainfall over much of
the area. There have been some embedded higher reflectivity,
especially on the western and southern side. NYS mesonet has
been showing rainfall rates exceeding one half inch per hour
within these heavier bursts. Lightning activity has been very
limited today, although there have been a few flashes from time
to time. Through the rest of the afternoon, steady rainfall will
continue for much of the area. Some additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected this evening as the front continues
to slowly push eastward and many locations (especially from the
Capital Region on southward) will see over an inch of rainfall
for the day. There is a low chance for some gusty winds or a
brief tornado, but the limited instability will keep this threat
very low, with a better chance south of our immediate forecast
area. This threat is primarily through the early evening hours,
as the front should be crossing by about 8 to 10 PM. While flash
flooding isn`t anticipated due to the recent dry weather, urban
and poor drainage areas will quickly see ponding of water due to
the high rainfall rates through this evening. Flood Advisory has
been already issued for the immediate Capital Region due to
water on roadways and in low lying spots, despite the ongoing
drought.
Once the front crosses, the rainfall will be ending and most
areas should be done by midnight. With the recent rainfall, it
will remain moist into the overnight and winds won`t pick up
just yet, so some fog is expected to develop overnight.
Upper level shortwave trough will be moving across the region on
Friday. This could allow for a few diurnally forced showers over
the Adirondacks on Friday afternoon, otherwise, it will be
fairly rain-free with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Dewpoints
still won`t have taken a big drop just yet, so it will still
feel a little muggy with daytime temps well into the 70s in
valley areas.
On Saturday, upper level ridging setting up just off the eastern
seaboard should be poking into the area. This should allow for
dry and continued mild weather on Saturday with a mostly sunny
sky and an another warm afternoon. Some guidance does try to
sneak some showers across southern areas by late Saturday and
into Saturday night (even lingering into Sunday morning) thanks
to an upper level disturbance over the mid Atlantic, but there
hasn`t been much of a consistent signal showing this. NBM POPs
have some slight chc to chance pops for southern areas, so will
continue to go with this for now, but will monitor trends in the
guidance.
Surface high pressure should stay overhead for Sunday into
Monday, as upper level ridging extends across the Great Lakes
and Midwest and towards the Northeast. Meanwhile, some tropical
activity will likely be ongoing near or off the Southeast coast,
but the expected ridging surrounding these features should keep
these systems away from the Northeast for now. Please check the
National Hurricane Center website (hurricanes.gov) for the
latest track and info on any potential tropical systems. With
the ridging in place, it will stay fairly warm and quiet across
our area, with a mostly clear sky. Daytime temps should be well
into the 70s to near 80 for both Sunday and Monday, with
overnight hours in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
Surface cold front will be dropping southward from the north for
the middle of the week. While Tuesday may be another mild day
ahead of the front, cooler and less humid air will arrive by
Wednesday. With limited moisture in place, no precip is expected
with this front, so it should stay rain-free through much of the
week. Much cooler temps is expected for the late week with highs
in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. Some frost is possible
by the late week for the high terrain and outlying areas.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00z Saturday...Poor flying conditions expected all TAF
sites through sunrise on Friday morning with gradually
improving conditions to VFR by Friday afternoon. A band of heavy
rain will affect KPSF and Maybe KPOU this evening. Rain will end
and then low clouds with IFR to MVFR cigs will advect into the
area from the west later this evening. Breaks in the clouds will
allow at least some fog to form all TAF sites. Highest
probability for LIFR in fog at KGFL. How dense the fog becomes
at the TAF sites will depend on how many breaks in the clouds
form. More in the way of breaks will allow for radiational
cooling and more fog at all TAF sites. A line of showers this
evening may bring westerly gusts to 30 kt to KPSF. Elsewhere,
and after 02Z at KPSF, winds will be mainly variable at 5 kt or
less overnight. Winds become westerly Friday morning at 5 to
7kt.
Outlook...
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Rathbun
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Rathbun
DISCUSSION...Frugis
AVIATION...SND

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion