Silver Lake, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

618
FXUS62 KILM 211700
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
100 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue through mid week with high
pressure the dominant weather feature. Unsettled weather is
likely late this week as a cold front approaches.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Quiet and or beautiful conditions will continue through the
near term period Monday. High pressure to the northeast will
keep a dry northeasterly flow in place although the axis will
weaken by MOnday PM. Really no chance of showers through the
period however some convective clouds have recently developed
southern most zones and will monitor closely the next several
hours. Lows tonight will be in the middle 60s with the seemingly
persistent middle 80s once again for Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Continued quiet weather into the short term period with sfc high
pressure still over the area. A weak sea breeze Tuesday could
bring at most isolated showers near the coast, but PoPs are
capped at 15% due to the lack of support aloft and deep-layer
moisture. Otherwise, near normal temps and partly cloudy skies
with the most clouds focused towards the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term period starts off dry midweek with increasing rain
chances thereafter for Thursday and moreso Friday as an upr-
level trough and associated sfc cold front approach from the
west. Guidance continues to differ a bit on where exactly the
trough axis will reside, but regardless the details are nebulous
out east ahead of the trough as transient shortwaves will be
embedded in the SW flow aloft along with weak low-level WAA, so
PoPs are in the chance range (30-50%) Thursday through Saturday
as timing will be better refined as we get closer. Eventually,
likely by Sunday, a drying trend will ensue as sfc high pressure
builds in from the west. Temps remain near to slightly above
normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR expected through most of the period. Guidance continues to
show a few hours of MVFR to perhaps IFR stratus across the area
moreso along the coast early Monday. This remains in the forecast
with the latest package.
Extended Outlook...Early-morning low cigs/vis remain a
possibility each day. Rain chances and associated vis/cig
restrictions become a possibility from Thursday onward.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Monday...NE winds on the order of a solid 15-20 knots
will remain in place through most of the near term period
Monday. The gradient will subside later Monday afternoon with
speeds dropping off to 10-15 knots. While there have been one
or two observations at 41013 just in excess of six feet feel the
range of 3-5 feet is more representative of our forecast zones
which reside just to the west of the buoy. The range should
narrow to 3-4 feet later Monday.
Monday night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions continue this
period. The breezy NE flow on Monday will diminish through
midweek as sfc high pressure moves offshore and weakens.
Similarly, seas will diminish to 2-3 ft by Wednesday, continuing
through Friday as winds average out of the south at 10-15 kt.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides: Minor coastal flooding is possible during each high tide
early this week along the lower Cape Fear River.
Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents is expected for New
Hanover County Monday and for New Hanover/Pender Counties
Tuesday due to increasing easterly swells partly associated with
distant tropical cyclone Gabrielle.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...MAS/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion