Shishmaref, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

220
FXAK69 PAFG 041230
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
430 AM AKDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of lows will be making their way through the Bering Sea
this week, bringing a multitude of hazards along with them.
Widespread heavy rain, strong winds, and coastal flooding concerns
are anticipated with these systems along the West Coast and parts
of the Western Interior. A ridge is beginning to develop over the
Eastern Interior this morning. As lows interact with this ridge,
expect gusty winds through the higher elevations in the Eastern
Interior as well as the Alaska Range Passes.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light rain and snow showers above ~1500 ft continue this
  morning. Showers will begin to scatter out by Noon today.
  Additional snow accumulations will be around or less than 1
  inch.
- Southerly winds bring warming temperatures this weekend with
  highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s to around 40.
- Alaska Range Gap winds will begin to strengthen this morning.
  Windy Pass is expected to see gusts up to 60 mph, while Isabel
  Pass could see gusts of 55 to 65 mph. These winds will are
  expected to last until Sunday Evening.
- Tuesday a Bering Sea low will bring heavy rainfall into the
  Central and Eastern Interior. The Fairbanks area could see up to
  0.75" of rainfall, while areas to the west of Fairbanks could
  see 0.75" to 1.25" of rain. Snow levels will be around 4000
  feet.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- A series of Bering Sea lows bring frequent rain chances and
  gusty southeast winds on Saturday the south to southwest winds
  Tuesday through Thursday.
- Several waves of light to mod rainfall add up to 0.5 to 1.0
  inches across most of the area through Monday night. A period of
  heavier rain is expected with the next system Tuesday through
  Wednesday.
- Winds will be changing from the southeast/south this weekend to
  southwest next week. Water levels rise to 2-5 feet above the
  normal high tide line Saturday night into Sunday as south-
  southeast winds persist. The Southern Seward Peninsula is
  expected to see 2-4 feet. The Yukon Delta, particularly Hooper
  Bay to Nunam Iqua is expected to see 2-4 feet. There will be
  wave run up as well as coastal erosion possible.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Rounds of rain and higher elevation snow showers continue
  through the middle of next week. South facing slopes above 3500
  ft across the west-central Brooks Range may get 3-7 inches of
  snow through Monday night, but temperatures warm to near or
  above freezing below 3000 ft melting any snow that falls.
- A Bering Sea storm moves over the Chukchi Sea on Wednesday
  bringing potential for strong southwesterly winds and a round
  of heavier precipitation toward the middle of next week.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 969 mb low southwest of St. Lawrence Island is continuing to
meander in the Bering Sea. A fairly stout warm front is bringing
30 to 40 mph wind gusts, and light to moderate rain to the West
Coast. This front will continue moving to the north, and will
weaken as it interacts with the Brooks Range. This front is
connected with a moisture plume from the North Pacific bringing
preciptable water values of around an inch. A stout ridge
stemming from the North Pacific High is settling into the Eastern
Interior this morning. With this ridge, chinook flow will
accompany it and bring temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s
this week. We are seeing the pressure gradient across the Alaska
Range begin to increase. We could see a 6 to 8 mb gradient across
the range by this afternoon. With 500 mb shortwaves moving across
the AK Range, we will see an amplification of the gap winds.
Monday the next low pressure will move into the Southern Bering
Sea. This 990 mb low will rapidly intensify overnight Monday and
by Tuesday afternoon it could be as low as 970 mb. There is a lot
of uncertainty with the track and the strength of this system.
With a stout ridge over the Eastern Interior, the low should ride
overtop the ridge. THE ECMWF and CMC are attempting to flatten the
ridge which would allow for a more easterly track on the low
pressure. This easterly track would still produce strong winds and
heavy rainfall, however the coastal flooding impacts would be
minimalized. The GFS and NAM are a more westerly solution as they
are riding the ridge instead of flattening it. This westerly
solution would produce a long fetch of southwesterly winds going
into Norton Sound. The one thing we are confident in is a period
of heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday for the West Coast and
Interior, as an Atmospheric River is feeding tropical moisture
into the mainland. The north slope will see impacts from this low
Wednesday night, and will be highlighted in the extended forecast
section.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A wetter weather pattern has returned to northern Alaska and
repeated rain chances over the next 10 or so days is expected to
result in rising river levels for smaller tributaries, but flooding
concerns are not expected at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Wednesday afternoon we will see the low pressure move from the
Bering Sea to the Chuckchi Sea. This will bring moderate rainfall,
and strong southerly winds. Point Hope to Utqiagvik could see
wind gusts up to 50 mph until Thursday night. East of Utqiagvik
could see winds as high as 60 mph Thursday afternoon and into
Friday. There is a lot of uncertainty on these stronger winds and
will solely depend on how strong the low center can remain as it
moves east-northeast from the Chuckchi Sea to the Arctic Ocean.
Another low moves into the Western Bering Sea on Friday. While
this low is expected to remain just east of the Kamchatka
Peninsula in Russia, there will be multiple shortwave features
that will rotate around the low. These shortwave features will
bring chances for gusty winds and light to moderate rain to the
West Coast.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
The coastal flooding concerns for this weekends system is
highlighted in the West Coast/Western Interior Key Message
section. Looking towards our next system on Tuesday, we are
anticipating most locations on the West Coast to see some amount
of higher waters. There are two high tides we are going to be
concerned with. Locations that are south of the Bering Strait
will be the Tuesday afternoon, and early Wednesday morning high
tides. While the areas north of the Bering Strait will be the two
high tides on Wednesday. There is a large amounts of uncertainty
on how much higher these tides will be, but as of now we are
anticipating most locations to see 3 to 6 feet above high tide.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ821-822.
     Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ825.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802-817-850-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Gale Warning for PKZ805-806-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-808-811-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-815-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
Dennis

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion