Shady Spring, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

779
FXUS61 KRLX 302343
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
743 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds from the outer moisture shield of Imelda will exit
southeast tonight. Precipitation is not expected until early
next week, as a large high pressure system takes charge.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 740 PM Tuesday...
Forecast on track, as the mid/high cloud shield around the
outskirts of the circulation of Hurricane Imelda was ever so
slowly pushing off to the southeast.
As of 1108 AM Tuesday...
The moisture from Hurricane Imelda in the Atlantic Ocean is bringing
a fairly thick cloud over over the central Appalachians today. Any
showers associated with this tropical moisture should be confined to
the mountains today. This thick cloud cover will keep temperatures
in the lower to middle 70s across the mountains and the lower 80s in
the lowlands today.
Clouds are expected to dissipate overnight as Imelda and Humberto
both pull away to the east, farther into the Atlantic Ocean.
Overnight temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 50s under
a partly to mostly clear sky.
High pressure will bring clear skies areawide Wednesday with a light
northerly breeze.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1108 AM Tuesday...
High pressure will center itself over the mid-Atlantic region
Thursday and Friday with quiet weather continuing. Temperatures will
remain mild for early October with highs in the 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1108 AM Tuesday...
High pressure will remain in control over the weekend and into early
next week with quiet weather continuing. The combination of a dry
ground, plenty of sunshine, and a light southeast wind will keep
temperatures above average for the long-term period. The next
potential chance of rain will be next Tuesday as a few models show a
southern stream of energy moving into the region. But until then,
the dry pattern will prevail.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 740 PM Tuesday...
A large high pressure system centered over eastern Canada will
maintain VFR conditions, save for some river valley fog
overnight into Wednesday morning. Northeast flow surface and
aloft, albeit light, will be enough to preclude fog almost
altogether along the Ohio River, as well as at CKB, but IFR to
VLIFR in fog is likely 09-13Z CRW and EKN.
BKW may have brief MVFR ceiling again this evening with a
sprinkle possible, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail there.
An afternoon widely scattered cumulus field at 6-7 kft is
expected on Wednesday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium on fog overnight into Wednesday
morning, otherwise high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of fog overnight into
Wednesday morning could vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR is possible with river valley fog each morning through Sunday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMC
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...TRM

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion