Severy Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

905
FXUS63 KICT 082337
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and storms possible Thursday morning.
- Warming trend continues through the weekend.
- Slightly cooler temperatures and additional rain chances
  return next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Currently, the ridge is beginning to build over the Plains leading
to slightly warmer temperatures today compared to yesterday.
Afternoon highs today will reach into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Relatively saturated midlevels along with WAA at 700mb are leading
to widespread stratus across much of the state. As we move through
the overnight hours and into Thursday morning, an increasing LLJ
will interact with the midlevel moisture and some limited
elevated instability leading to isolated shower and
thunderstorm development across central Kansas between 06-09Z.
This activity will drift southeastward over the course of the
early morning hours. An isolated strong storm is possible with
nickel to quarter size hail being the main threat with the
strongest storms.
For Thursday afternoon through the rest of the week and
weekend, the upper-level ridge will continue to build over the
region, becoming especially dominant for Friday-Sunday. This
feature will lead to drier weather and warming temperatures
across the forecast area. With the mid-level ridge situated
directly over the Southern and Central Plains, highs for Friday
and Saturday will reach into the lower to middle 80s. The ridge
axis will then begin to shift eastward with the approach of a
trough on Sunday leading to highs topping out in the middle 80s
for most locations with those in central and south-central
Kansas flirting with the upper 80s.
With the ridge dominating the pattern, near zero precip chances
are expected for Friday through Sunday. But as the deep trough
approaches the Plains and pushes the ridge east, the
corresponding surface pressure gradient will tighten across the
Central Plains over the weekend. Southerly winds will begin
increasing on Saturday and will last through Sunday with
sustained winds between 15-20 mph and wind gusts between 30-35
mph during the afternoon hours.
On Sunday night into Monday, a piece of energy from the western
trough will eject northeastward over the Northern Plains. This
will push a weak frontal boundary southeastward across the
Central Plains on Monday. Temperatures for Mon-Wed look to
remain above normal for this time of year but will fall into the
70s and lower 80s. The slow moving boundary will meander over
the state for the beginning of the week leading to on and off
rain and storm chances across the area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Mid clouds continue to drift eatward while another batch of 5k
ft clouds impact parts of central KS. We could see some isolated
or widely scattered showers and isolated storms late tonight
with some convergence on a weak LLJ which may favor parts of
central KS or north central KS into the morning hours on Thu but
coverage may remain to low to have enough confidence to mention
in TAFs. Breezy southerly winds will return to central KS on Thu
afternoon with some gusts into the 25 kt range.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...MWM

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion