Satanta, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

120
FXUS63 KDDC 021000
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...Updated Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Saturday.
- Unseasonably hot with strong south winds Friday and Saturday.
  Afternoon temperatures near 90, with south winds gusting near
  40 mph.
- Scattered thunderstorms possible with the next cold front
  Sunday night, followed by much cooler, more seasonable
  temperatures early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
A beautiful early autumn night was in progress at midnight, with
satellite imagery depicting very few clouds, and surface
observations showing a light and variable wind field.
Midlevel high pressure ridging will build aggressively northward
over SW KS Thursday, with 500 mb heights near 590 dm. With the
associated nudge in thickness, afternoon temperatures will be
1-2 degrees warmer than Wednesday, with upper 80s common. This
is a full 10 degrees above normal for early October. Several
locations will achieve 90 at peak heating, but this should be
limited with the lack of SWly downslope. Strong subsidence
beneath the northern periphery of the expanding ridge axis will
keep clouds few and far between. Pressure gradients will remain
weak, for one more day, with only weak lee cyclogenesis and only
light southeast winds.
Ridge axis remains in place over the central plains Friday, for
a continuation of sunshine, few clouds and unseasonably hot
afternoon temperatures. With improved mixing and slightly higher
thickness, all locations will be near 90 around 4 pm. Lower 90s
will be common, but record highs in early October are in the
mid 90s, and these appear unlikely. Much stronger south winds
are expected Friday, in response to stronger lee cyclogenesis,
with 00z NAM forecasting a 1002 mb cyclone near Denver. A
traditionally windy Kansas day is forecast, with south winds
averaging 20-30 mph. Gusts of 35-40 mph are expected, especially
late afternoon.
A strong closed midlevel cyclone over the Great Basin 7 pm
Friday will rotate into the central Rockies as a potent
negatively tilted trough by 7 pm Saturday. This synoptic
evolution will force stronger lee cyclogenesis, < 995 mb, over
northeast Colorado. Strong south winds will result, and Saturday
promises to be the windiest day we have seen in quite some time.
00z NAM forecasts a 10 mb pressure gradient across SW KS, and
global models show 850 mb winds near 45 mph at peak heating.
With excellent mixing in a hot boundary layer, gusts near that
caliber are expected. Kept the wind grids Saturday near the
strongest available guidance.
Much of the trough`s energy will eject well to the north of
SW KS Sunday, but the associated cold front will enter the
northern zones during the afternoon. The next chance of any
thunderstorms will be late Sunday, as the cold front slows and
becomes nearly stationary, and convergence along the boundary
encourages convective development. NBM pops begin Sunday night,
and this appears correct. Models show the quasi stationary
frontal boundary meandering in the SW KS region early next week,
with at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Latest
GFS/ECMWF runs suggest Tuesday/Tuesday night for the most
widespread activity, and NBM pops are trending upward for this
time frame. Much cooler early next week, with afternoon
temperatures returning close to normal, in the 70s, perhaps
cooler where clouds prevail much of the daylight hours. In
particular, NBM/MEX guidance shows a cooling trend for next
Wednesday, with afternoon temperatures remaining in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Excellent flying weather is expected through this TAF period,
with a continuation of VFR/SKC and light winds.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion