San Ardo, California Weather Forecast Discussion

717
FXUS66 KMTR 231210
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
510 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 337 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Areas of Moderate and Major HeatRisk today.
- Weak offshore flow through Tuesday in the higher terrain.
- Chances rain showers and isolated thunderstorm return late
   tonight and continue through Wednesday.
- Seasonal weather returns late week and into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 337 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
(Today and tonight)
For those looking for a taste of summer, today is your day as high
temperatures will be about 5 to 15 degrees above normal. What does
that mean in terms of the thermometer? Highs will be in the 90s for
many interior locations, with some sites potentially cracking 100.
For those closer to the coast, highs will range from the 70s to mid
80s. Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the day, but clouds will
start to infiltrate later in the afternoon or evening as low
pressure approaches the region. Unsettled weather should stay at bay
until Wednesday. A few CAMs show showers trying to flirt with our
southern waters or against southern Monterey County.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 337 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
(Wednesday through Monday)
The forecast is on track with an upper level low pressure system
slated to move into Central California. Showers are expected to
spread up from the south and creep into the Bay Area. Convective
parameters still look fairly decent across the region, favoring
Monterey and San Benito counties and gradually expanding into the
Bay Area. Thunder and precip chances have been reduced in the North
Bay, but a few stray showers are possible up there. PWATs remain
elevated around 1.0-1.4 meaning thunderstorms should be wet and dry
lightning is a lower risk. Nonetheless, if you`re going to be out
and about tomorrow remember, when thunder roars, go in doors. See a
flash, make a dash. And if you`re driving and encounter a rain
shower, remember roads might be a little slick given we haven`t had
much rain this season.
After Wednesday, more seasonal weather is on tap. The upper low is
expected to sink back into southern CA with a brief bout of upper
level ridging nosing in Friday. This will bring a brief warm up with
more seasonal temperatures on tap for the weekend and into early
next week as the pattern becomes more neutral.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Inconsistent LIFR CIGs and pockets of fog are affecting the coast
and the Monterey Bay. Winds are light across the region and remain
so into the late morning and early afternoon. CIGs begin to erode in
the mid to late morning leading to widespread VFR as winds build and
become moderate to breezy. Winds reduce into the mid evening and
into the night. CIGs return to the coast into the late night,
affecting HAF. Showers approach the southern terminals into early
Wednesday and spread north into that mid morning with slight chances
for storms possible.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect light winds
through the late morning with breezier winds for the afternoon and
gusts peaking around 20 kts. These winds reduce into the night,
becoming light to moderate and turn slightly southwest. Expect
showers to build into the area in the late morning on Wednesday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Spotty and inconsistent LIFR CIGs linger
into the mid morning with light winds. Expect VFR and moderate west
winds for the afternoon. Winds reduce the evening. becoming light.
SNS looks to see IFR CIGs late Tuesday night, but these CIGs lift
and scatter as showers approach the Monterey Bay.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Light winds continue into the mid week. Isolated rain showers and
thunderstorms arrive to the southern waters late Tuesday and
linger through Wednesday. Thunderstorms will pose the risk of
lightning, as well as locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
Winds build in the late week, becoming breezy to gusty. Moderate
seas will prevail through Wednesday, building to become rough to
very rough in the outer waters Thursday into Friday.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM PDT this evening
     for CAZ006-508-510-513-515.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock
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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion