Saginaw, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

501
FXUS63 KDTX 271924
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
324 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather will persist through the upcoming week as high
pressure dominates the region.
- Temperatures will remain above normal in the low 80s to close out
the month with more seasonal temperatures around 70 expected mid
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Seasonably warm conditions again entrenched locally late this
afternoon, reinforced by ongoing warm air advection within low level
southwest flow beneath prevailing lower amplitude upper ridging.
Deep column stability held within this dry resident air mass
ensuring limited cloud coverage. Brief reduction in the height field
will commence tonight, as minor shortwave energy attendant to a
deeper system pivoting through central Canada tracks through the
great lakes. This will draw a weak cold front across southeast
Michigan late tonight into Sunday morning. Little evidence in model
data to suggest anything beyond perhaps a brief period of cloud
cover along the advancing front. Noted post-frontal low level wind
shift to northeasterly will aid in directing a cooler lake Huron
augmented environment inland throughout Sunday. High degree of
insolation potential will counter this effort, with greater success
outside of the thumb region. Broader distribution in projected
highs, ranging from lower 70s in the eastern thumb to lower 80s
Metro Detroit southward.
A blocked, high amplitude upper level pattern featured for the early
week period maintains this stretch of benign weather with conditions
marked by above average warmth. Pattern solidified as an upper level
high pressure system peaking near 592 dm centers over the region.
Neutral thermal advection overall with low level flow generally
lacking a southerly component lends to gradual moderation of the
resident above average thermal profile given the high magnitude
height field. This translates into highs mainly in the upper 70s to
lower 80s both Mon & Tue, but with light onshore flow contributing
to slightly cooler readings for locales within immediate proximity
to lake influence.
Transition toward slightly cooler conditions Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as strengthening of high pressure to the north
establishes a firm northeast low level gradient. Noteworthy period
of cold air advection certainly augmented by flow off the colder
lake Huron waters, resulting in temperatures that are more
seasonable entering October. These conditions will linger into
Thursday with flow still carrying an easterly component, before
moderating again Friday into next weekend as upper ridging
establishes greater control atop emerging low level southerly flow.
No precipitation expected throughout the work week given the depth
and magnitude of stability residing in this environment.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front tracks across the Great Lakes tonight with minimal
impact aside from a wind shift to the northwest. Otherwise, high
pressure builds into the area Sunday-early next week and again
middle of next to week to support an extended stretch of dry
weather.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
AVIATION...
VFR conditions in-place across the airspace this afternoon with a
timid diurnal cumulus response near 8 kft AGL. Resident warm sector
airmass features a modest southwesterly gradient wind around 10
knots. SKC expected by late evening with a drop in wind speeds ahead
of an approaching cold front. Model data suggests this boundary
drops through from the north between 06Z and 12Z. Potential exists
for a period of low stratus and/or fog, but confidence is too low at
this time for any non-VFR mentions. Addressed the frontal passage
with a SCT010 ceiling and a northerly wind shift.
For DTW/D21 Convection...Convection is not expected through the TAF
period.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......HI
AVIATION.....KGK
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NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion