Safety Harbor, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

977
FXUS62 KTBW 261326
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
926 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Radar is showing a few very light showers over the northeastern gulf
waters, but otherwise it is a very pleasant morning with mostly
sunny skies across west central and southwest Florida. Southwest
winds ahead of a frontal boundary to the northwest will persist
through the day. Latest model guidance shows showers and storms
developing along the sea breeze this afternoon as it pushes inland
and ahead of this frontal boundary. The highest rain chances appear
to be from Manatee County northward and over the interior. Near
seasonal temperatures expected topping out in the upper 80s to low
90s. Forecast looks good with no changes needed at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 924 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions and light winds less than 10 knots expected at all
terminals through the period. There`s a chance of afternoon showers
and storms as the sea breeze pushes inland, so will hold VCTS at all
terminals starting at 18Z. There`s also a second chance of showers
and storms later in the period after 00Z as a weak front approaches
the west coast of Florida, so will keep VCTS for TPA/PIE/SRQ/LAL
through 04Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 924 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A frontal boundary will approach the northern gulf waters today with
an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
northern waters, spreading over the central waters tonight and
Saturday. High pressure will build back over the waters on Sunday
and into early next week with lower rain chances each day. Light
winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less expected over the
weekend. A slight increase in northerly winds to around 10-15 knots
and seas up to 3 feet expected for the early part of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  77  89  76 /  30  30  60  20
FMY  91  76  91  75 /  20  10  40  20
GIF  93  75  92  74 /  40  20  60  20
SRQ  89  76  88  74 /  20  30  50  20
BKV  90  71  88  69 /  40  40  60  20
SPG  88  77  87  76 /  30  40  50  20
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion