273 FXUS64 KJAN 051908 AFDJANArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 208 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances exist through mid-week, but warm and mostly dry weather continues to be the general theme as we go through this week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Today through Saturday: Weak low pressure is positioning itself over the Lower Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. With it, increasing moisture across the region will yield some increasing rain chances across mainly southeast portions of the forecast area as we go through the next several hours, but a good bit of moistening is required and this is delaying the onset of any measurable rainfall.
Although this mid/upper level low pressure system erodes heading into the new work week, moisture associated with it will linger across the forecast area through mid-week. This will continue to result in rain chances remaining in the forecast, especially during the heat of the afternoon, through at least Wednesday. This is when a fast moving cold front is progged to sink south into and through the region.
In this front`s wake Thursday through Saturday, high pressure at the surface will quickly build southeast into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, with high pressure aloft building southwest along the north central gulf coast. Not much of an airmass change is currently expected to accompany this frontal passage, as only some slightly drier air will advect into the region. Still, somewhat less humid conditions will exist as temperatures hover at to just above the norm for this time of year late in the week. /19/EC/
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
As of 1741Z, HBG is currently under MVFR ceilings due to an approaching stratus deck from the southeast. All other TAF sites are currently reporting VFR conditions. VFR conditions will continue across multiple TAF sites through 19Z. By 20Z light rain showers and low stratus will begin to overspread the area later this afternoon/evening and will persist through the overnight period. Multiple southern TAF sites (HBG, PIB, and HEZ) will see IFR/possible LIFR ceilings heading into the overnight period due to a very low stratus cloud deck (
NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion