Rootstown, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

500
FXUS61 KCLE 240755
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
355 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front remains over the area as a low pressure
system moves northeast along this front through tonight. A
surface trough may linger into Friday before high pressure
builds in over the weekend. A weak cold front crosses the region
on Sunday before high pressure returns early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad positively-tilted upper-level troughing extends from the
Great Lakes region southwest towards the Southern Great Plains,
with an associated surface stationary front draped across the
area. Several shortwaves are expected to move northeast across
the area ahead of the broader trough, providing several periods
of better lift.
On radar we are starting to see that manifest in showers with
embedded thunderstorms near the I-75 corridor, which has been
producing moderate to brief, heavy rain at times. Should expect
this to continue as it expands eastward across the rest of the
forecast area today and tonight. PoPs peak in the 80-90% range
with areawide QPF averaging around 0.5", though locally higher
amounts are expected due to convective nature. However, there
are some indications that locally higher amounts of 1-2" and
possibly even higher may be possible where thunderstorms
persist, especially given slow storm motions and abnormally high
moisture content. The 00Z HREF seems to have the highest
probabilities in Northwest Ohio around the Toledo area but also
in other parts of Northern Ohio, including the Cleveland area.
Will have to keep an eye out for at least a low potential for
minor flooding where storms persist.
The potential for precipitation on Thursday has lowered
compared to previous forecasts as the low pressure and cold
front move east away from the area, should only see isolated or
scattered rain showers on Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface troughing may linger on Friday with isolated to
scattered rain showers still possible, especially downwind of
Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. High
pressure builds in thereafter and weather should be much
quieter. Temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure continues with temperatures near normal through
the long term period. No precipitation and highs in the upper 70s
are expected with lows in the mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Rain is trending a few hours faster from west to east this
morning, so although most sites are currently VFR, expect the
showers and MVFR/IFR currently affecting KTOL to spread into
KFDY by 08Z and the KMFD and KCLE terminals by 10-12Z. This rain
and lower cigs/vis will reach KCAK and KYNG by 14Z, but it may
take until 18Z to reach KERI. Before the rain and clouds, patchy
fog will affect KCAK, KYNG, and KERI early this morning. Kept
visibilities around 3SM at those terminals, but brief periods of
lower vis are possible if the clouds hold off a bit longer.
Confidence is lower on this. The steadiest rain will exit NW
Ohio by late morning with VFR returning, but more frequent
showers and MVFR/IFR at times will persist farther east until
this evening, especially in NE Ohio and NW PA. Places that
sufficiently clear out the cloud cover tonight will have a good
set-up for locally dense fog given the wet ground, long nights
at this time of year, small temp/dew point depressions, and
light winds. This is most likely at KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD due to
the rain and clearing occurring sooner, but there is potential
for it farther east as well, although with lower confidence.
Light and variable winds early this morning will turn generally SE
at 5-10 knots by mid morning, except a lake breeze will bring
NE winds to KTOL, KCLE, and KERI this afternoon. The lake breeze
may even reach KFDY.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Thursday and Friday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light E to SE winds on Lake Erie this morning will
turn NE at 5-10 knots this afternoon due to a combination of a
lake breeze and low pressure approaching from the southwest.
Winds will eventually turn WNW by late tonight and Thursday and
increase to 10-15 knots as the low lifts up into Ontario
Province. At this time, still think that winds and waves will
stay below small craft criteria since guidance is coming into
better agreement on a relatively weak low. WNW winds will
decrease to 5-10 knots Thursday night and Friday as high
pressure builds in. This high will quickly depart to the east
with winds turning S at 5-10 knots ahead of a cold front Friday
night and Saturday before turning N to NE behind the front late
Saturday night and Sunday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion